TFM Midday Update 1-20-21

CORN

  • March down 5 @ 5.20 & Dec down 8 @ 4.46
  • Argentina dry yesterday & limited rainfall expected for the rest of the week
  • Corn exports running 82% ahead a year ago
  • Brazil corn exports expected to reach 2.398 mt in Jan versus 2.121 mt in previous forecast
  • Funds taking profit, who are record long corn, adding pressure to prices
  • Ukraine grain exporters are fighting proposed limit on corn exports

SOYBEANS

  • March down 18 @ 13.67 & Nov down 18 @ 11.71
  • Crop conditions in Brazil still rated favorable for most of the country.
  • Palm oil prices down on shrinking Jan exports
  • Soybean exports running 78% ahead a year ago
  • CME raises margin requirements on futures from 2,750 to 2,950
  • China’s soybean imports from the US in 2020 rose by 52.8% from last year

WHEAT

  • March down 3 @ 6.68, KC Mar down 5 @ 6.38, MNPLS March down 6 @ 6.46
  • Bitter cold in S. Russia induced no crop damage due to snow coverage
  • Wheat exports running 3% behind a year ago
  • Wheat following corn’s lead, down as  much 15 cents, but fighting its way back
  • US Hard winter wheat is now more competitive with EU wheat
  • Once Russia tax is imposed starting Feb 15 – US exports could be on the rise

CATTLE

  • Feb LC up .10 @ 113.52 & Jan FC up .55 @ 134.95
  • Jump in beef may support more upward movement for Feb futures
  • Cattle on feed out 2:00 p.m. CT on Friday – market looking for friendly report
  • Today’s slaughter est. at 119K head
  • Asking prices around 113 for LC & @ 133.43, down 1.55 for 1/18 for FC cash index
  • O/I: -4312 contracts for Feb LC & O/I: -666 contracts for Jan FC

HOGS

  • February Hogs up .92 @ 67.40 & Feb Pork Cutout up .97 @ 78.40
  • Pork weakness is a bearish force & June breaks uptrend channel
  • Fall in feed grains help support hog futures for the day
  • Hog slaughter estimated at 496K
  • Cash lean index @ 65.56, up .39 for 1/15
  • O/I: +6790 positions for hogs & pork cutout futures unchanged

Author

Amberlee Bratcher

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