CORN

• Mar corn up 8 @ 6.29
• Despite recent rains, about 42% of Argentina’s crop area is still in drought
• South American early corn (and soybean) yields are reportedly disappointing
• A weather pattern change in Brazil (with more rains) could help the second corn crop
• May corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $11.02 per bushel

SOYBEANS

• Mar soybeans up 6 @ 14.09
• A private group conducted a crop tour in Brazil – they claim Brazil’s soybean crop could be below 130 mmt (and maybe even below 125 mmt)
• US soybean export pace is still behind what is needed to meet the USDA’s goal
• There are more rains forecasted for Argentina the next few days but it may get drier after that
• Brazil’s overall soybean harvest is said to be 5% complete

WHEAT

• Mar wheat up 17 @ 8.18, Mar KC up 18 @ 8.36, Mar MNPLS up 4 @ 9.53
• The USDA lowered winter wheat crop ratings in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska
• US southern plains forecast continues to be dry (though January weather doesn’t have as big an impact as March & April)
• The Russia / Ukraine situation remains a concern with reports that Russia is conducting military drills
• The US Department of Defense reportedly said 8,500 US troops are awaiting orders to deploy if Russia invades

CATTLE

• Feb LC up 0.450 @ 136.775 & Mar FC down 1.250 @ 160.000
• Gaps remain above current levels and may need to be filled
• Cattle market may struggle due to higher weights and placements
• Choice cuts up 1.09 and select up 2.46
• Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
• CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/24: down 0.64 @ 160.46

HOGS

• Feb hogs up 1.250 @ 87.575 & Feb pork cutout up 1.275 @ 97.350
• Demand is strong and slaughter pace may be increasing
• Strong cash to begin the week may indicate packers need hogs
• Hog futures are overbought
• National Direct Afternoon report increased 3.00
• Hog slaughter projected at 465K
• CME Lean Hog Index for 1/25: up 0.81 @ 78.32

Author

Brandon Doherty