CORN
- Mar corn unchanged @ 6.20
- May corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $11.12 per bushel (a new contract high)
- Better weather in Argentina could help late planted crops, though about 40% of their crop area is still in drought
- US exports may benefit from shortages in Brazil and the potential of Ukraine shipments being impacted if there is an invasion
- Cash price of domestic corn in Brazil is the equivalent of $7.80 per bushel
SOYBEANS
- Mar soybeans up 15 @ 14.22
- Next week is the Chinese New Year (they will likely wind down any trade until after the new year)
- Damage to the crop in dry parts of South America may be irreversible (but late planted soybeans could improve if there is a weather pattern change)
- Yields in northern Brazil are coming in lower than expected and there are concerns over quality (due to wet conditions)
- Soybean oil is benefiting from higher crude
WHEAT
- Mar wheat down 27 @ 7.91, Mar KC down 23 @ 8.11, Mar MNPLS down 28 @ 9.19
- Ukraine’s defense minister said there is no imminent threat from Russia – this may be helping stocks but is weighing on the wheat market
- Wheat may also be seeing profit taking after the recent rally
- Paris milling wheat futures are down about the equivalent of 20 cents per bushel
- 23 mmt of wheat is scheduled to be shipped from Russia and Ukraine between February and June
CATTLE
- Feb LC up 1.275 @ 138.375 & Mar FC up 1.525 @ 161.375
- Cash cattle may trade steady this week
- Increasing slaughter means packers need cattle
- Higher corn prices mean feedlots are more willing to move cattle
- Choice cuts down 1.12 and select down 1.47
- Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/25: down 0.69 @ 159.77
HOGS
- Feb hogs down 0.475 @ 86.975 & Feb pork cutout down 0.550 @ 96.775
- Prop 12 was suspended by a California court – enforcement of the law moved back at least 6 months
- Strong cash is an indication of good demand
- Futures remain overbought and due for a correction
- National Direct Afternoon report up 6.44
- Hog slaughter projected at 471K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 1/26: up 0.13 @ 78.45
Author
Brandon Doherty