TFM Midday Update 1-28-2022


  • Mar corn up 8 @ 6.33
  • US ethanol inventory is at the highest level since May 2020
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported 32% of Argentina’s corn crop was rated good to excellent (vs 22% last week)
  • Corn sales are currently above the USDA’s pace (but still 10% behind a year ago)
  • USDA Foreign Agricultural Service dropped their estimate of Argentina’s corn crop to 51 mmt (vs the last USDA estimate of 54 mmt)


  • Mar soybeans up 27 @ 14.75
  • March soybeans and soybean oil are positing new contract highs
  • Private exporters reported 264,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year, and 141,514 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 21/22 marketing year
  • The two week forecast shows rains in parts of Argentina, Paraguay, and Southern Brazil
  • Higher crude and veg oils are helping soybeans


  • Mar wheat up 15 @ 7.92, Mar KC up 15 @ 8.09, Mar MNPLS up 17 @ 9.19
  • Weekly export sales of 24.9 mb was the highest weekly sale for 21/22
  • The US Dollar Index closed yesterday at the highest level in a year and a half
  • If Russia does invade Ukraine, the European wheat market will likely benefit the most
  • The Foreign Agricultural Service estimated Argentina’s wheat crop to be record large at 21.8 mmt (up 1.3 mmt from the January USDA estimate)


  • Feb LC up 0.600 @ 138.425 & Mar FC up 0.275 @ 159.775
  • Several feeder cattle contracts still have gaps above the market
  • Packers may need to be aggressive in purchasing cattle to fulfill the improving slaughter pace
  • High feed prices mean feedlots will want to move cattle quickly
  • Choice cuts down 0.35 and select down 0.62
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/27: down 0.45 @ 159.05


  • Feb hogs down 0.075 @ 87.100 & Feb pork cutout up 0.325 @ 97.150
  • Traders may be anticipating tighter supplies and higher cash
  • Export sales were fairly strong at 49,100 mt with China listed as the second highest buyer
  • Hog futures are still overbought and due for a correction
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 5.53
  • Hog slaughter projected at 474K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/28: up 0.55 @ 79.75


Brandon Doherty

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