TFM Midday Update 1-3-2022


  • Mar corn down 8 @ 5.85
  • Over the weekend there were light and isolated showers in Argentina and southern Brazil
  • Some analysts are already decreasing South American corn production numbers as forecasts for key growing regions are mostly dry
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported corn crop conditions at only 58% good to excellent in Argentina (vs 76% last week)
  • According to NOAA, January will see increased precipitation northern areas of the US, but the southern third will be drier than normal
  • Temperatures in January are forecasted to be colder than normal – these fluctuations could be an early indication of a warm and dry spring / summer


  • Jan soybeans up 10 @ 13.38
  • Light, isolated showers in Argentina and southern Brazil over the weekend, but flooding conditions in northern Brazil are likely to delay harvest
  • Some analysts are already decreasing production numbers for Brazil’s soybean crop
  • The 6-15 day forecast calls for returning drought conditions in many areas of Argentina
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported the soybean crop to be only 56% good to excellent in Argentina (vs 71% last week)
  • Palm oil is rallying due to flooding in parts of Malaysia


  • Mar wheat down 16 @ 7.55, Mar KC down 15 @ 7.87, Mar MNPLS down 14 @ 9.68
  • January 12 USDA report will give us the first look at winter wheat acres – expectations are for higher acres than last year
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange suggested that Argentina’s wheat crop might be larger than their last estimate (21.5 mmt) (the USDA estimate is 20 mmt)
  • Paris milling wheat futures are headed for three lower closes in a row
  • Iraq’s tender for 500,000 mt could include some US HRW wheat
  • Russia’s export tax has again been increased, to $98.20 per metric ton


  • Feb LC down 0.400 @ 139.300 Mar FC up 0.325 @ 170.275
  • Though markets were open Friday, the USDA was closed (no slaughter numbers or boxed beef prices Friday)
  • Cattle are consolidating and remain in overbought territory
  • Higher cash is expected this week (less activity last week may cause packers to be more aggressive this week)
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 12/31: up 1.66 @ 165.21


  • Feb hogs down 0.500 @ 80.975 & Feb pork cutout down 0.025 @ 93.400
  • USDA was closed Friday, causing uncertainty in price direction
  • California Prop 12 goes went into effect January 1st, causing some uncertainty
  • Traders may remain bullish as supplies are expected to tighten
  • Hog Slaughter projected at 474K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/3: down 0.45 @ 71.75


Brandon Doherty

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