TFM Midday Update 1-5-2022


  • Mar corn down 3 @ 6.07
  • The forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil remains dry for the next two weeks
  • Northern Brazil’s forecast remains very wet with expected totals of 5-12 inches in the next 10 days (delaying early harvest and causing quality concerns)
  • Some analysts are predicting a decline of 8-10 mmt in South America’s corn crop
  • There are rumors that China may buy 5-7 mmt of US corn


  • March soybeans up 5 @ 13.95
  • Some analysts are predicting a decline between 15-20 mmt in South America’s soybean crop
  • Barge basis along the Illinois river increased yesterday, suggesting there may be new soybean sales to China
  • March soybeans yesterday closed at their highest level since July
  • Palm oil again reached a new contract high due to flooding in Malaysia and Indonesia


  • Mar wheat down 7 @ 7.63, Mar KC down 13 @ 7.91, Mar MNPLS down 10 @ 9.61
  • Russia has likely shipped less wheat than what the USDA is estimating
  • Significant reductions in winter wheat crop ratings may help support the market
  • There are rumors that Iraq may have bought as much as 200,000 mt of HRW wheat but results from the tender are expected next week
  • Weather forecast for the US southern plains continues to remain dry for at least the next two weeks


  • Feb LC down 0.775 @ 137.050 & Mar FC down 0.725 @ 165.625
  • Both live and feeder cattle gapped lower on the charts yesterday
  • Yesterday may have been the first day in a liquidation phase (which can typically last 2-3 days)
  • Packers may be unwilling to bid up due to the pressure on futures as well as higher corn prices
  • Choice cuts up 0.79 and select up 0.33
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 1/4: down 3.00 @ 162.35


  • Feb hogs up 0.900 @ 81.050 & Feb pork cutout up 0.525 @ 93.125
  • With the exception of February, hog futures resisted spillover pressure from cattle yesterday
  • Bullish potential due to trader concern over tightening supply
  • Higher cash is helping to support the market
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 1.37
  • Hog slaughter projected at 474K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 1/5: up 0.90 @ 72.75


Brandon Doherty

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