TFM Midday Update 10-01-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday as bearish USDA stocks data, combined with continued favorable harvest weather, weigh on prices and add pressure to the market.
Dr. Cordonnier maintained his U.S. corn yield estimate at 182 bpa, noting that the ‘southern rust’ remains a significant concern in parts of the Midwest.
In Argentina, favorable soil moisture has supported planting progress, now nearly 20% complete, but forecasts suggest conditions will begin to dry over the next 10 days. Brazil has also experienced dryness, though rain chances are expected to improve in the second week of the outlook.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects Argentina’s corn production could rise to 58 million tons in the upcoming season, up from 49 million last year, as farmers are expected to increase planted acreage.
Ethanol production fell to 292 million gallons in the week ending September 26, down from 301 million the previous week and 2% below year-ago levels. Output marked the lowest in 4.5 months and came in well under expectations.

Soybean futures are trading lower at midday, pressured by yesterday’s neutral quarterly stocks report and added uncertainty from the overnight government shutdown. Both soybeans and soybean meal are moving lower, while soybean oil is holding modest gains.
This afternoon’s NASS August soybean crush report is not expected to be released, and tomorrow morning’s export sales data will also be delayed due to the government shutdown.
Following a meeting between the U.S. ambassador and Chinese officials last night, lawmakers noted that China will not be purchasing any U.S. agricultural products in the near term, with no timeline set for a deal. This development is weighing heavily on soybean markets.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Brazil’s new crop soybean production at 48.5 million tons, down from 50.3 million last season, as some producers shift acreage from soybeans to corn.
Dr. Cordonnier maintained his U.S. soybean yield estimate at 52 bushels per acre, noting that the dry finish has produced smaller, lighter seeds—a trend also observed by producers in the eastern belt.

Wheat futures are also trading lower at midday across all three classes, pressured by yesterday’s USDA data, which proved disappointing. Stocks increased more than expected, and U.S. wheat production came in higher than anticipated, adding further pressure to the market.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its Argentina wheat production estimate to 22 million tons, up 1.5 million from its previous forecast, with harvest expected to begin in November.
LSEG raised its Canadian wheat production estimate by 4.4% to 36.5 million tons as harvest progresses.
A U.S. Attache left China’s wheat production estimate unchanged at 140 million tons but raised the wheat import forecast to 6 million tons, up from 4.2 million last year.
Taiwan is currently tendering for 80,000 tons of U.S. wheat.

Lauren VandenLangenberg