TFM Midday Update 10-02-2026

CORN

Corn is modestly lower at midday as harvest pressure continues to weigh on the market. December corn is down 4-1/2 cents at 4.97-1/2.
The forecast for the next two weeks across the Plains and Midwest shows rain moving out, followed by a stretch of warm, dry weather. U.S. drought coverage declined by 1% this week and is expected to drop further following this week’s rainfall.
USDA confirms the sale of 218,600 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico. 173,800 tons are for 2026/27, 22,400 tons for 2027/28 and the remaining 22,400 tons for 2028/29.
Argentine planting is 22.2% complete, in line with last year’s pace. Meanwhile, the French harvest has reached 67% completion, well ahead of 22% at this time last year and the five-year average of 20%.

Soybeans are lower at midday as an improved harvest outlook weighs on the market. Soybean meal is also trading lower, while soybean oil is posting gains. November soybeans are down 5-3/4 cents at 12.78-1/4.
The two-week outlook shows showers lingering across the Eastern Belt and Mid-South today, but the Plains and Midwest are expected to turn warmer and drier. This should allow crops to dry out and harvest to progress.
StoneX released a bearish U.S. soybean yield estimate of 54.1 BPA this week, up from 53 BPA in its September estimate.
The U.S. dollar is steady this morning after reaching contract highs yesterday, adding pressure to the market alongside concerns over declining demand during China’s weeklong holiday.

Wheat is split at midday, finding support from the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea region. December Chicago wheat is up 1-1/4 cents at 6.84 and December Kansas City wheat is down 2-1/2 cents at 7.35.
The Black Sea situation shows no signs of improvement, with Putin rejecting Ukraine’s offer for a mutual halt to strikes. Ukraine’s Agriculture Minister reported September wheat exports of just 1.09 million metric tons, down from 2.05 million a year ago. Additionally, Ukraine’s winter wheat planting is expected to decline by 17%.
Estonia has banned the transit of Russian grain through its territory. If Latvia and Lithuania follow suit, Russia could lose access to its Baltic export route. Meanwhile, Russia’s Deputy Minister forecast the 2026 grain crop at 140 million metric tons, down from 141.2 million last year.

Lauren VandenLangenberg