TFM Midday Update 10-03-2025

CORN

Corn futures are starting to reverse higher, lifted by support in the soy complex. December corn is unchanged at $4.21-3/4, while the March contract is up 0-1/4 cents to $4.38-1/4.
S&P Global has reduced their U.S. corn yield projection by 3.6 bpa, to 185.5 bpa. This compares to the USDA’s estimate of 186.7 bpa.
According to FranceAgriMer, France’s corn harvest has advanced to 24% complete, up 10% from the week prior and on par with the 5-year average.

Soybeans are finding support at midday as the market digests some recent production estimates. November soybeans are 3-1/4 cents higher to $10.27-00, while the January contract is up 3 cents to $10.44-3/4.
S&P Global lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53 bpa, down from the group’s previous estimate of 53.8 bpa last month.
StoneX raised their soybean yield estimate to 53.9 bpa, up from their previous forecast of 53.2 bpa. This has also improved soybean production by 69 mb to 4.326 billion bushels.

The wheat market is mixed at midday, with Chicago leading higher. December Chicago wheat is 1-00 cent higher to $5.15-3/4, Minneapolis is up 0-1/2 to $5.61, and Kansas City is down 0-1/2 to $4.98-½.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that sufficient soil moisture has been beneficial to Argentina’s wheat yields for the 2025/26 season. The group mentioned that wheat yields are near historic levels as a result of plentiful rainfall.
According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, 2026 winter wheat plantings are now up 9% from the prior forecast to 5.2 million hectares. The ministry cited drought conditions as the cause for the shift from corn and sunflowers to winter wheat.

Tanner Wilson