CORN
- Dec up 1 @ 5.42
- Funds added 10,912 contracts last week – now net long 170,126 contracts
- Markets are waiting for an increase in export demand
- Recent showers delayed harvest activity in the Midwest
- China reportedly has a record large corn harvest
- Brazil corn exports for September reported at 2.85 mmt (vs 6.4 mmt a year ago)
SOYBEANS
- Nov down 7 @ 12.40
- USDA report on Oct 12 – will likely be bearish soybeans, showing the increase in both US and global supply
- Nov soybeans now at the lowest level since March 31
- Funds added 4,616 contracts last week – now net long 9,180 contracts
- Markets are waiting for an increase in export demand
- China hasn’t met goals forPhase 1 trade agreement, which could mean more tariffs
WHEAT
- Dec wheat up 1 @ 7.56, Dec KC down 5 @ 7.55, Dec MNPLS unchanged @ 9.29
- Wheat markets look relatively soft compared with last week’s rallies
- Russian wheat exports expected to be down 3.5 mmt from last year
- Rumors that Russia may implement new wheat export restrictions (to offset rising food inflation)
- Wheat stocks for Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota as of Sep 1 are at 438.2 mb (the lowest since 1961)
CATTLE
- Oct LC up 2.025 @ 122.425 & Oct FC up 1.050 @ 153.800
- The cattle complex has had a bearish tone since the Cattle on Feed report
- Packers are defensive and unwilling to bid higher (with the weakness in futures and boxed beef)
- Choice cuts down 2.62 and select down 4.48
- Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/1: down 0.06 @ 153.72
HOGS
- Oct hogs down 0.950 @ 91.350 & Oct pork cutout down 0.975 @ 110.025
- There is a large gap on the charts below current levels
- Cash and cutouts have not followed hog futures higher
- National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.86
- Hog slaughter projected at 473K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 10/4: up 0.49 @ 93.39
Author
Brandon Doherty