TFM Midday Update 10-05-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 1 @ 5.42
  • Deferred month rally yesterday likely due to rising fertilizer costs
  • USDA crop conditions unchanged from last week at 59% good to excellent (62% last year)
  • Corn harvest estimated to be 29% complete vs 18% last week and 22% average
  • Weekly export inspections at 31.8 mb (below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal)

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 20 @ 12.56
  • In 2022, US farmers might plant more soybeans than corn, due to the high cost of planting corn
  • USDA crop conditions unchanged from last week at 58% good to excellent (64% last year)
  • Soybean harvest estimated to be 34% complete vs 16% last week and 26% average
  • Weekly export inspections at 31 mb (below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal)
  • Malaysian palm oil made new record highs overnight

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat down 2 @ 7.54, Dec KC down 6 @ 7.48, Dec MNPLS down 2 @ 9.28
  • Yesterday Russian officials announced an export quota system – could start mid February
  • Winter wheat plantings reported to be 47% done vs 24% last week and 46% average
  • Weekly export inspections at 22.5 mb (above the pace needed o meet the USDA’s goal)
  • Matif wheat futures are making new highs

CATTLE

  • Oct LC up 0.550 @ 123.175 & Oct FC up 1.800 @ 156.800
  • According to the Commitment of Traders report, funds sold 5,934 live cattle contracts – now net long 28,770 contracts
  • Futures were oversold, triggering short covering
  • The rally was likely a technical one, and may be short lived without a change in fundamentals
  • Choice cuts down 3.18 and select up 0.32
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/4: down 1.19 @ 152.53

HOGS

  • Oct hogs down 0.050 @ 90.750 & Oct pork cutout @ 110.275
  • There is a large gap on the charts below current levels
  • According to the Commitment of Traders report, funds bought 9,775 hog contracts – now net long 65,633 contracts
  • Hog futures may be in a liquidation phase for the next day or two
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.91
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/5: up 0.66 @ 94.05

Author

Brandon Doherty

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