TFM Midday Update 10-08-2021

CORN

Dec up 2 @ 5.36
Weather forecasts are predicting rain next week in the western Corn Belt, which could slow harvest there
USDA holiday on Monday – crop progress/inspection numbers delayed to Tuesday – markets will remain open Monday
Matif corn futures higher due to slow harvest (France only 7% harvested vs 47% last year)
Argentina corn 21% planted vs 25% average
China’s corn harvest has started – but heavy rains and flooding are raising quality concerns

Nov up 9 @ 12.56
Rumors yesterday that China is back in the US soybean market – may be looking for up to 8 cargoes from the PNW
Soybeans are getting support from world veg oil markets – Malaysian palm oil at new highs and Canada canola prices at new highs
CONAB estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 140.8 mmt (record large vs 137 mmt last year)
Dalian futures have reopened as China returns from holiday

Dec wheat down 5 @ 7.36, Dec KC down 1 @ 7.40, Dec MNPLS up 4 @ 9.46
Argentina wheat is 37% headed – their good to excellent rating dropped to 44% (from 51% last week)
Saskatchewan, Canada wheat yields are at 30 bushels per acre vs 36 average
Pennant formations are developing on the Chi and KC wheat charts
Paris milling wheat futures again made new contract highs
Ukraine’s wheat crop estimated at 32.3 mmt
Russia’s wheat export tax is near $60 per metric ton and continues to rise

Oct LC up 0.100 @ 125.375 & Oct FC up 0.025 @ 160.375
October feeder cattle yesterday closed at the highest level since September 7
Live and feeder cattle futures were able to breach levels of technical resistance
Boxed beef may be near a bottom, but uncertainty remains
Choice cuts down 1.09 and select down 4.87
Cattle slaughter projected at 116K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/7: up 0.92 @ 153.80

Oct hogs up 0.475 @ 90.325 & Oct pork cutout down 0.150 @ 110.150
There is a large gap on the charts below current levels
Export sales to China were disappointing – their production is increasing
Packers yesterday paid a little more for hogs but are still able to obtain the required number of hogs without much trouble
National Direct Afternoon report increased 0.17
Hog slaughter projected at 476K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/8: down 0.92 @ 92.59

Brandon Doherty