TFM Midday Update 10-1-2020

CORN

December up 0.045 @ 3.835, March up 0.045 @ 3.9275, May up 0.0425 @ 3.9775
Bullish stocks report yesterday came in 255mbu below trade expectations
Cumulative export sales have reached 38.3% of the USDA estimate vs 24.9% on average
Ethanol production for the week ending September 25 was down 2.8% from last week and down 8% from last year
December futures are pushing to new highs for the move and are at the highest prices since March 4
Dec corn is currently trading above the upper Bollinger Band resistance level

November up 0.0575 @ 10.29, January up 0.0525 @ 10.325, March up 0.0425 @ 10.2525
Soybean stocks came in 36mbu below the low end of trade expectations yesterday
Yesterday’s Grain Stocks report insinuated that usage and exports have been better than what most were expecting
Mixed harvest reports in the country so far and any drops in yield can tighten supplies quickly
November beans are trading well above the upper Bollinger Band resistance line
Prices briefly traded above yesterday’s highs but have since pulled back towards the middle of the day’s range

Dec CHI wheat down 0.045 @ 5.735, Dec KC down 0.015 @ 5.08, Dec MPLS down 0.0175 @ 5.385
US wheat stocks came in below the average trade guess yesterday but still within expectations
Dryness in Black Sea is still a concern though Black Sea wheat is the cheapest in the world
US dollar is lower but holding the 20-day moving average support level so far today
Low open interest leaves prices vulnerable to wild swings on large volume fund trading
CHI and KC futures are holding the upper Bollinger Band level as support
MPLS futures are holding the 10 and 20-day moving average support levels

October lives up 0.30 @ 108.82, December lives down 0.15 @ 112.20, February lives up 0.02 @ 115.90
October feeders down 0.35 @ 141.00, November down 0.85 @ 141.20
Cash prices continued to firm up yesterday
Futures are still holding a sharp premium to cash
Beef trend has been choppy
October lives tested the upper Bollinger Band resistance level but have fallen back to new lows for the day

October up 0.85 @ 73.65, December down 0.70 @ 62.40, February down 0.37 @ 67.62
The cash trend is still higher, and futures are at a wide discount to cash
Weights have increased for the last four weeks
Pork cutout trend has been choppy to lower
October hogs are making new highs for the move

Bryan Doherty