TFM Midday Update 10-1-2020


  • December up 0.045 @ 3.835, March up 0.045 @ 3.9275, May up 0.0425 @ 3.9775
  • Bullish stocks report yesterday came in 255mbu below trade expectations
  • Cumulative export sales have reached 38.3% of the USDA estimate vs 24.9% on average
  • Ethanol production for the week ending September 25 was down 2.8% from last week and down 8% from last year
  • December futures are pushing to new highs for the move and are at the highest prices since March 4
  • Dec corn is currently trading above the upper Bollinger Band resistance level


  • November up 0.0575 @ 10.29, January up 0.0525 @ 10.325, March up 0.0425 @ 10.2525
  • Soybean stocks came in 36mbu below the low end of trade expectations yesterday
  • Yesterday’s Grain Stocks report insinuated that usage and exports have been better than what most were expecting
  • Mixed harvest reports in the country so far and any drops in yield can tighten supplies quickly
  • November beans are trading well above the upper Bollinger Band resistance line
  • Prices briefly traded above yesterday’s highs but have since pulled back towards the middle of the day’s range


  • Dec CHI wheat down 0.045 @ 5.735, Dec KC down 0.015 @ 5.08, Dec MPLS down 0.0175 @ 5.385
  • US wheat stocks came in below the average trade guess yesterday but still within expectations
  • Dryness in Black Sea is still a concern though Black Sea wheat is the cheapest in the world
  • US dollar is lower but holding the 20-day moving average support level so far today
  • Low open interest leaves prices vulnerable to wild swings on large volume fund trading
  • CHI and KC futures are holding the upper Bollinger Band level as support
  • MPLS futures are holding the 10 and 20-day moving average support levels


  • October lives up 0.30 @ 108.82, December lives down 0.15 @ 112.20, February lives up 0.02 @ 115.90
  • October feeders down 0.35 @ 141.00, November down 0.85 @ 141.20
  • Cash prices continued to firm up yesterday
  • Futures are still holding a sharp premium to cash
  • Beef trend has been choppy
  • October lives tested the upper Bollinger Band resistance level but have fallen back to new lows for the day


  • October up 0.85 @ 73.65, December down 0.70 @ 62.40, February down 0.37 @ 67.62
  • The cash trend is still higher, and futures are at a wide discount to cash
  • Weights have increased for the last four weeks
  • Pork cutout trend has been choppy to lower
  • October hogs are making new highs for the move


Bryan Doherty

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