TFM Midday Update 10-11-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 2 @ 5.33
  • US expected to get a lot of rain in the coming days, delaying harvest
  • Brazil forecast shows good rains over the coming weeks
  • Harvest is expected to be around 50% complete this week
  • China’s corn harvest expected to be record large at 273 mmt
  • Funds remain net long 163,000 contracts
  • USDA Oct supply and demand report released tomorrow

SOYBEANS

  • Nov down 6 @ 12.37
  • Rumors that China bought 5-7 cargoes of US soybeans after returning from holiday
  • Palm oil down slightly after last week’s contract high
  • Crude oil is over $80 per barrel in the Nov contract – may affect soybean oil
  • Harvest is expected to be around 50% complete this week
  • USDA Oct supply and demand report released tomorrow
  • Most analysts expect an increase to carryout on tomorrow’s report

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat down 2 @ 7.32, Dec KC down 2 @ 7.36, Dec MNPLS down 3 @ 9.43
  • Russian wheat values have been higher for 12 weeks straight
  • US wheat production is the lowest in 19 years
  • USDA Oct supply and demand report released tomorrow
  • Expectation for a decline in spring wheat production on tomorrow’s report due to abandoned acres
  • Winter wheat conditions are favorable in Europe

CATTLE

  • Oct LC up 0.050 @ 125.625 Oct FC down 0.075 @ 159.400
  • Fund’s long liquidation may have run its course
  • Fundamentals are bearish on supply and may limit the upside
  • Cash trade was steady to $1 higher last week
  • Choice cuts down 2.03 and select down 1.70
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/8: up 0.77 @ 154.57

HOGS

  • Oct hogs down 0.450 @ 89.80 & Oct pork cutout down 0.850 @ 108.925
  • There is a large gap on the charts below current levels
  • Weakness of cash and cutouts were not supportive to the market
  • Availability of hogs means packers are not very aggressive
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.92
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/11: down 0.64 @ 91.95

Author

Brandon Doherty

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