TFM Midday Update 10-13-2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 35.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 32 mb were behind the 40 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 2.025 bb.
In yesterday’s report, the USDA kept Chinese corn production unchanged at 277 mmt. This is lower than estimates from both the U.S. ag attaché as well as China’s ag minister. Therefore, the USDA’s world corn production number could be too low currently because China’s production could eventually be revised higher.
The war in Israel has resulted in increased tensions globally as Hamas is encouraging Jihad today. This has caused fears of potential new terrorist attacks at home and abroad. The uncertainty in the Middle East may also be contributing to the choppy crude oil market due to uncertainty about production in that part of the world. As of writing, it seems to have a bullish influence with crude up over $3 per barrel; if it continues higher it may provide support for ethanol and biofuels.
Despite some rain in the upper Midwest, most of the U.S. is dry. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have mainly normal temperatures with normal to below normal rainfall.

The USDA reported an increase of 38.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 52.8 mb were above the 34.9 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 1.755 bb.
Private exporters reported sales of 117,300 mt of soybeans and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Soybeans had a strong close yesterday after some bullish surprises on the USDA report. However, they are trading lower at midday today. The 21-day moving average may be keeping futures in check; they have traded below that average since mid-September. Yesterday, November soybeans did break through but closed below that level (about 12.90) and are below it again this morning.
The USDA did increase biofuel demand yesterday. Some analysts believe that down the road, biofuel demand will exceed food use.

The USDA reported an increase of 24.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 12.6 mb were behind the 13.8 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 700 mb.
Private exporters reported sales of 181,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
The USDA kept their estimate of Russian wheat production unchanged at 85 mb. Some private estimates think this is too low, which could mean that global production will be revised higher on a later report.
The USDA did lower the Australian wheat crop, however, they kept Argentinian and European production unchanged.
Despite no change from the USDA at 16.5 mmt, the Rosario Exchange did recently lower Argentina’s wheat production estimate to 14.8 mmt due to the expanding drought conditions.

Brandon Doherty