TFM Midday Update 10-14-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher at midday, supported by strong export inspections. December futures are up 1-1/4 cents to $4.12-00, while March futures are a penny higher to $4.28-1/4.
Conab estimates that Brazil’s corn production for the 2025/26 season will reach 138.60 mmt, up slightly from the group’s previous estimate of 138.28 mmt.
According to a Reuters survey, U.S. corn harvest is seen at 44% complete. Harvest could be on pause later this week as rainfall moves into the Corn Belt through the early part of this week.
U.S. export inspections for the week ending October 10 came in at 1.30 mmt, down from 1.701 mmt last week but up from the same week last year of 514k mt.

Soybeans remain lower at midday as optimism weakens regarding trade talks between the U.S. and China early next month. November soybeans are down 5-3/4 cents to $10.02-00, while January futures are 5-1/2 cents lower to $10.19-3/4.
According to Conab, Brazil’s soybean crop is seen at a record 177.64 mmt. If realized, this would be up nearly 6 mmt from last year’s production.
NOPA crush data for September is expected to be released on Wednesday. This will be one of the few data releases that will give the market some information to trade off while the government is still shut down.
U.S. export inspections for soybeans totaled 994k mt, which was on the high end of estimates. This compares to 783k mt last week and 1.908 mmt last year.

Wheat prices are firmer at midday, supported by a slight drop in the U.S. dollar and rising corn prices. December Chicago is up 3-1/2 cents to $5.00-1/4, December KC is up 5-1/2 cents to $4.86-3/4, and December Minneapolis is 1-00 cent higher to $5.25-1/2.
U.S. export inspections for wheat came in on the low end of estimates at 444k mt. This compares to 548k mt the week prior and 380k mt the same week last year.
According to a Reuters survey, winter wheat planting in the U.S. is seen at 66%. Ukraine’s sowing, much like the U.S., is seen at 62% sown.

Tanner Wilson