TFM Midday Update 10-14-21

CORN

  • Dec up 2 @ 5.14
  • US rains have caused harvest delays the past couple of days
  • More rain expected for the eastern Corn Belt for the next two days
  • A La Nina weather pattern is expected this year – likely to bring dryness to South America
  • Funds remain net long 140,000 corn contracts
  • US corn is currently the world’s cheapest
  • It remains unknown how much corn China needs to buy

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 3 @ 11.98
  • India cut their veg oil import tax from 2.5% to 0%
  • Palm oil is lower after making a new contract high
  • USDA reported yesterday that China bought 330,000 mt and unknown bought 198,000 mt of soybeans

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 6 @ 7.25, Dec KC up 9 @ 7.31, Dec MNPLS up 13 @ 9.62
  • Paris milling wheat futures are higher
  • Russian wheat harvest is 95% done – 76.4 mmt harvested
  • SRW wheat areas are getting rain
  • HRW wheat areas should remain mostly dry for the next week
  • Drought could remain a concern into 2022

CATTLE

  • Oct LC up 0.500 @ 125.275 Oct FC down 0.050 @ 157.60
  • Bearish supply outlook for cattle
  • Cash cattle have traded steady this week
  • Boxed beef still showing weakness
  • Choice cuts down 10.5 and select down 2.65
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/13: up 0.11 @ 154.26

HOGS

  • Oct hogs down 0.475 @ 88.175 & Oct pork cutout down 0.300 @ 105.550
  • The gap on the charts below current levels has not yet been filled but it is close
  • An ample supply of hogs means packers can purchase without bidding higher
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.93
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/14: down 1.21 @ 89.73

Author

Brandon Doherty

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