CORN
- By midday Wednesday, corn turned higher, although the lack of significant market-moving news limited the rally. December corn is up at 4.14½.
- CONAB’s latest production estimate fell short of market expectations, suggesting a more modest output outlook. Meanwhile, export inspections declined 33.6% from the prior week but continued to outpace last year’s levels, up 119.7%.
- Forecasts indicate a wetter trend moving into the central and eastern Corn Belt over the coming week, which may cause only slight disruptions to harvest progress. The 8–14 day outlook suggests a transition to drier conditions across the entire Midwest, accompanied by continued above-normal temperatures.
SOYBEANS
- By midday, soybeans moved into positive territory as traders reacted to developments out of China. Amid the ongoing government shutdown, limited market news with a hint of optimism has been enough to trigger modest gains. November soybeans are at 10.07½, with the entire soy complex showing midday strength.
- President Trump threatened to halt imports of Chinese cooking oil, a move traders viewed as supportive for U.S. soybean oil prices. China’s cooking oil exports to the U.S. are already down 65% year over year.
- USTR representative Greer stated yesterday that it is up to China whether the 100% tariff will take effect on November 1, noting that discussions are ongoing to find a path forward following China’s unprecedented rare earth export controls. China’s increasingly aggressive stance is likely to keep soybean markets under pressure until there is a shift in tone or a Trump–Xi meeting is confirmed.
WHEAT
- Wheat futures are lower at midday amid the ongoing government shutdown. With limited market-moving news, traders see little incentive to push prices higher. December wheat is down at 4.96 ½.
- CONAB’s latest Brazil wheat report leaned slightly bearish, with higher yield projections and increased ending stocks versus a year ago, signaling improved supply conditions.
- While export expectations were at the lower end of the projections, they remain 17% above last September, with marketing-year-to-date shipments up 18%.
- LSEG maintained their production estimates for the EU, UK, and Australia, leaving them unchanged from the previous month.
Author
Lauren VandenLangenberg