TFM Midday Update 10-16-2023


  • Corn is trading lower near midday following a higher open in the overnight on harvest pressure and potentially some risk-off mentality with the direction of the war between Israel and Hamas relatively unknown.
  • Last week in the US, harvest was delayed a bit due to rains covering most of the Midwest, but the 7-day forecast is looking very dry, and good progress will likely be made in the coming week.
  • Focus is beginning to shift to South American weather with Argentina still very dry from last season along with northern Brazil, while southern Brazil is too wet. Plantings are around 35% complete in the main growing area of Mato Grosso.
  • Crop progress will be released later today, and the expectations are that the corn harvest will be between 45 and 47% complete.


  • Soybeans have been slipping since their higher open overnight and slight gains earlier this morning and are currently trading near unchanged. Soybean meal is lower, but soybean oil is steadily higher with support from higher palm oil prices.
  • Palm oil is higher for the third consecutive day with exports for Malaysian palm oil significantly higher. Soybean oil in the US is benefitting from strong domestic demand in the way of renewable diesel.
  • The September NOPA crush report will be released today, and estimates are calling for 161.7 mb of soybeans crushed which compares to 161.5 mb in August. If these estimates are correct, it would be a record large crush for September.
  • As with corn, some attention is shifting to South American weather and planting. Slight showers are forecast for the dry areas of Argentina and Brazil later in the week, but so far planting has not gotten off to a good start with conditions either too dry or too wet. A main river in the Amazon is dealing with backed up barge traffic due to low water levels from the drought.


  • Wheat has slipped from its gains this morning with Chicago and KC now trading lower, while Minneapolis remains slightly higher. The trend in wheat has moved higher following unexpected sales of wheat to China.
  • Last week, a flash sale of 181,000 mt of soft red wheat was sold to China, and now there are rumors that China is seeking more US, French, and Australian wheat. This sales activity is interesting given their relationship with Russia and Russia’s large wheat supplies.
  • The Russian wheat crop has yet again been estimated higher by IKAR to 141.6 mmt, but in Argentina, production is being estimated lower at 16.2 mmt. Australia’s production in being called 35% lower than last year due to drought.
  • Heavy rains are forecast to hit China’s largest grain producing areas over the next 10 days, which will mainly affect wheat and corn crops. This adverse weather could be behind China’s purchases from the US and France.


Amanda Brill

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