TFM Midday Update 10-16-2025

CORN

Corn prices are seeing a boost at midday, supported by a recent uptick in demand after Taiwan and South Korea purchased US corn. December corn futures are up 3-3/4 cents to $4.20-1/2 while the March contract is up 4-00 cents to $4.36-1/4.
LSEG estimates that Brazil’s new corn crop will reach 138.4 mmt, which was on par with CONAB’s estimate from earlier in the week. Both estimates are well above the USDA’s estimate of 131 mmt.
Rain showers are still scheduled for much of the Corn Belt through the end of the week, which will likely put harvest on pause. Corn harvest in the US is seen advancing towards 50% complete this week.

Soybeans are seeing some strength at midday after reports that a trade deal being struck with China is a “likely” outcome. November soybeans are up 10-1/2 cents to $10.17-00 and March futures are 10-3/4 cents higher to $10.35-00.
LSEG sees Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6 mmt, which, if realized, would be a record. The group’s estimate was very similar to CONAB’s recent estimate of 177.64 mmt, and above the USDA’s estimate of 175 mmt.
NOPA crush for September came in at 197.86 mb, up 4.2% from the month prior and 11.6% higher from September 2024.

Wheat futures are higher at midday, supported by stronger corn prices and a drop in the US dollar. December Chicago futures are 3-1/4 cents higher to $5.02-00, December Kansas City is up 1-1/4 cents to $4.89-1/2 and December Minneapolis futures are unchanged at $5.51-00.
Recent export sales showed wheat sold to South Korea and Algeria yesterday. US competitiveness is a good sign at least in the short-term, but fundamentals still lean bearish as estimates see large global wheat supplies.
News is still light on the wheat side and could be subject to headline risks as many see President Trump shifting his attention to Russia and Ukraine to get a peace deal done after doing so with the Gaza peace deal.

Tanner Wilson