TFM Midday Update 10-16-2026

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday, pressured by weakness in the wheat and soybean markets. December corn is 4-1/4 cents lower at 4.74.
CONAB’s initial monthly update for the new crop season added pressure to the market yesterday. First-crop corn production is estimated to rise 8.9% year over year, while second-crop production is expected to increase 0.4%, supported by a 4.9% increase in planted area. Total corn production is projected near 148 million metric tons, up 2.4% from the previous season, with exports expected to climb 4.8% year over year.
Higher production estimates from the International Grains Council also weighed on the market, with global corn production projected to increase by 6 million metric tons to 1.307 billion tons on higher output expectations from the U.S. and Argentina.
Argentine corn planting is 35% complete, while France’s corn harvest is 92% complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 46%.
China kept its corn import tariff-rate quota unchanged at 7.2 million metric tons.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday despite China and unknown buyers purchasing nearly 1.1 million metric tons yesterday. The market continues to struggle to find positive momentum despite the recent export demand. November soybeans are 7-1/4 cents lower at 12.56.
Cooler temperatures have spread across the Midwest and south to the Texas Gulf Coast. However, a warming trend is expected to begin late this weekend, with above-normal temperatures returning in the 6–15 day outlook.
CONAB’s early-season update yesterday was slightly bearish, with soybean production estimated at 181.6 million metric tons, up 0.7% year over year. Exports are projected to rise 1.5%, while planted area is expected to increase 1.4% from last season.
Weekly export sales today are expected between 500,000-1.2 million for soybeans, 200,000-600,000 for meal and 0-10,000 for bean oil.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday, pressured by beneficial rainfall across the Southern Plains this week and sluggish U.S. demand. December Chicago wheat is 12 cents lower at 6.58-1/4 and December Kansas City wheat is 10 cents lower at 6.80-1/4.
China kept its wheat import tariff-rate quota unchanged at 9.64 million metric tons. However, elevated U.S. wheat prices are expected to limit the potential for additional Chinese purchases.
Rising Australian production has weighed on the wheat market this week, with Western Australia’s crop estimate raised to 10.9 million metric tons, up from 10 million last month.
Weekly export sales are expected in the range of 300,000 to 600,000 tons.

Lauren VandenLangenberg