TFM Midday Update 10-17-2023

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday as it remains in its slight uptrend on the daily chart but with resistance at the 5-dollar level in December. Some support is coming from hot and dry conditions in South America.
Crop progress showed the corn harvest at 45% complete, which was in line with expectations but a bit slow for the week as rains delayed field work. 95% of the corn crop is mature.
There is little in the way of fresh news since Thursday’s WASDE report, and although conflict between Israel and Hamas is escalating, it has not seemed to have had much effect on the markets.
Export inspections were mediocre yesterday at 17 mb as most of the corn export business seems contained to North America with Mexico picking up another 7.9 mb yesterday.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday with support from soybean meal and the hot and dry conditions in South America. Prices have continued to move higher following the WASDE report last week.
The Crop Progress report showed harvest at 62% completed, which is 10% above the 5-year average with Iowa and Illinois leading the pace at 74% and 61% respectively. Good to excellent ratings improved by 1 point.
The NOPA crush report showed 165.456 mb of soybeans crushed in September, higher than expectations and a new record for the month.
Crush margins have begun to improve which should give a boost to demand, and in yesterday’s NOPA report, it was revealed that soybean oil stocks are at the lowest levels since 2014 at 1.108 billion pounds.

Wheat is mixed at midday but has come back from early morning lows with only the Chicago contract trading lower. Trade is looking for another purchase of soft red wheat by China from the US.
Crop progress showed that winter wheat seeding is now 68% complete in the US, which is in line with the 5-year average with Kansas now 70% planted. 39% of the crop is emerged, 4 points below average.
Wheat prices in India rose to a an 8-month high today as they deal with a limited supply on weather problems and higher demand than anticipated.
Wheat harvest in Brazil is beginning, but rains in major wheat growing areas are concerning growers and could see output cut by 3.3% despite the total growing area being 12.1% larger than last year.

Amanda Brill