TFM Midday Update 10-2-20

CORN

December down 0.0075 @ 3.82, March down 0.0075 @ 3.9125, May down 0.0025 @ 3.97
Weather forecasts for the next two weeks look conductive to harvest activities
Farmers have been slow sellers of corn despite recent rally
Lowered beginning stocks will make the corn balance sheet even more sensitive to weather changes on next Friday’s report
December futures are trading just off session highs after pressure overnight
Stochastics are not overbought, and futures are trading within the Bollinger Band range

November up 0.04 @ 10.275, January up 0.0375 @ 10.31, March up 0.03 @ 10.24
Meal futures are rallying to new highs
The recent soybean rally has helped spark some producer selling
Solid forecasts for harvest weather in the coming weeks
Soybean export sales are running 26.6% ahead of the average pace
November futures traded sharply lower overnight, tested the 10-day moving average support and have since bounced back higher
Funds are holding a huge net long position which could leave beans vulnerable to liquidation selling

December CHI up 0.0525 @ 5.7525, December KC up 0.0275 @ 5.0925, December MPLS up 0.025 @ 5.36
More talk of dryness concerns for Black Sea planting
Russian growing areas are forecast to receive some beneficial rains later next week
Ukraine received beneficial rains earlier this week
If soybean harvest goes well in the US, many are expecting to see an increase in winter wheat seedings
CHI and KC futures surged lower overnight but have recovered to positive territory and are testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance level
MPLS futures have punched through the 10 and 20-day moving average resistance levels and are trading at session highs

October lives down 0.12 @ 108.40, December lives down 0.55 @ 111.27, February lives down 0.45 @ 115.02
October feeders down 0.52 @ 140.40, November feeders down 0.80 @ 140.45
Cash cattle are trading 1.00-2.00 higher than last week
Slaughter is running behind last week
Beef trend is choppy to higher
October lives tested the 10-day moving average resistance early on but have recovered a bit and are just off session highs

October up 0.70 @ 74.85, December up 0.35 @ 63.20, February up 0.42 @ 68.30
Cash and pork trend are higher
Premium of futures to cash should limit near term downside
Slow slaughter pace is helping to keep supplies from overwhelming current demand
October hogs gapped higher this morning but have fallen back in the lower third of the day’s trading range

Bryan Doherty