TFM Midday Update 10-20-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday as the ongoing government shutdown limits available data. Demand remains strong in both export and ethanol sectors, but the lack of USDA reports has left traders without confirmation of new sales or weekly export figures. December corn is trading lower at 4.20.
Over the weekend, President Trump accused the president of Colombia of being an “illegal drug leader” and announced that all U.S. subsidies to Colombia would be suspended. Colombia consistently ranks among the top five importers of U.S. corn, and in retaliation, it could shift purchases toward South American suppliers.
U.S. harvest progress continues under generally favorable weather conditions. However, the 6–10 day forecast calls for above-normal precipitation across the Northern Plains and Northwestern Midwest, which could lead to some delays.
Argentina’s corn planting has reached 30% completion, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The Exchange’s latest forecast pegs production at a record 61 million metric tons.

Soybeans are trading higher at midday following comments from President Trump expressing confidence that a trade deal with China can be reached, despite the lack of recent Chinese soybean purchases. The proposed meeting is scheduled to take place in 11 days. Soybean and soybean meal are higher, while soybean oil trades lower. November soybeans are higher trading at 10.28.
China made no U.S. soybean purchases in September, the first time in seven years the month has passed without Chinese buying activity.
Corn planting in Brazil is progressing quickly, with Patria reporting 23.27% of fields planted versus 9.33% a year ago. Favorable weather conditions and adequate rainfall are helping sustain the accelerated pace.
Late last week, Agriculture Secretary Rollins made vague comments suggesting that the U.S. is in negotiations to crush soybeans in South America, which may have contributed to recent market strength.

Wheat futures are trading mixed at midday amid a lack of fresh news. However, short covering and a slightly improved technical outlook across the grain complex are providing mild support. December Chicago wheat is trading up at 5.05.
Wheat markets face continued pressure as global production and supply estimates grow. The latest report from consultancy IKAR indicates Russian wheat production could reach 88 million metric tons.
SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in October to reach 5.1 million tons, up from 4.6 million tons in September. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s exports so far this marketing year have reached 5.68 million tons, compared to 7.34 million tons during the same period a year ago.
Despite large world wheat supplies, U.S. export sales and inspections are exceeding expectations. Without the latest USDA data, however, traders are forced to rely on private data and speculation.
Australia is on track to harvest its third-largest crop on record, with the European Union also expecting strong production. Argentina’s crop prospects remain favorable, but cold weather this week may lead to some yield losses.

Lauren VandenLangenberg