CORN
- Dec up 4 @ 5.34
- Talk that China might ban fertilizer exports – could push US fertilizer prices even higher
- Brazil corn is 54% planted vs 49% average
- Resistance in corn is around the 5.35 area
- The EU imports of corn are down 31% year on year
- The southern US Corn Belt could get rains this weekend
SOYBEANS
- Nov up 14 @ 12.42
- Talk of China looking for US soybeans from the Pacific Northwest for February
- The Brazilian Real is at 6 month lows, partly triggering farmer selling in that region
- US soybeans are currently the cheapest in the world
- Palm oil is making new contract highs
- CONAB reported Brazilian soybean seedings at 24% complete
WHEAT
- Dec wheat up 11 @ 7.47, Dec KC up 8 @ 7.56, Dec MNPLS up 12 @ 9.86
- They USDA may not have fully shown the drop in last year’s global wheat production
- Many world buyers are short of wheat (especially north Africa and the Middle East)
- EU shipments of wheat so far are at 10 mmt (60% above a year ago) – this is likely unsustainable
- MPLS wheat has been higher for 11 of the past 14 days
- Thursday, China will attempt to sell 37 mb (1 mmt) of wheat from their reserves
CATTLE
- Dec LC down 0.100 @ 129.925 & Apr FC up 0.400 @ 163.450
- The next Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday
- The CoF report expected to continue to show large numbers as on the previous report
- Live cattle futures continue to hold their gains – possibly indicating support levels
- Choice cuts down 0.15 and select down 0.81
- Cattle slaughter projected at 121K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/19: up 0.20 @ 154.10
HOGS
- Feb hogs down 0.100 @ 80.350 & Feb pork cutout up 0.450 @ 94.750
- The chart gap below current levels was filled in December and February but remains open in April
- China’s pork output increased 38% for the first three quarters of this year
- National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.27
- Hog slaughter projected at 478K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 10/20: down 0.25 @ 86.63
Author
Brandon Doherty