TFM Midday Update 10-21-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 1 @ 6.83
Private analyst Strategie Grains lowered their estimate of European corn production to 50.4 mmt (down from 52.9 mmt and vs the USDA at 56.2 mmt)
If true, the aforementioned estimate would be the lowest European corn crop in 15 years
Mississippi River water levels remain historically low and are causing logistics problems for the transport of grains
Corn export sales were poor, with total commitments 52% lower than last year
Ethanol margins have improved

Nov soybeans down 3 @ 13.89
Yesterday’s export sales data was strong for soybeans at 85.8 mb – this was the most since December of 2021
Brazil soybean planting conditions have been mostly favorable
Soybean oil has been in a strong uptrend as of late, and palm oil is also trending higher
China’s internal soybean prices remain high, at around the equivalent of $21 per bushel

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Dec wheat down 6 @ 8.43, Dec KC down 8 @ 9.42, & Dec MNPLS down 3 @ 9.60
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged lowered their Argentina wheat crop estimate to 15.2 mmt (vs the USDA at 17.5 mmt)
Yesterday’s wheat export sales data was disappointing, with an increase of only 6.0 mb for 22/23
Reports of Iranian troops in Crimea backing Russia may further escalate the conflict
The Russian UN ambassador reportedly feels that the Ukraine export deal will not be renewed
Heavy rains in eastern Australia continue to raise concerns about wheat quality

Dec LC up 0.075 @ 151.750 & Nov FC up 1.225 @ 178.775
Southern cattle traded $3.00 higher, but northern cattle showed limited activity
Weekly export sales were alright at 16,600 mt
Demand continues to remain strong but inflation & recession are still a concern down the road
Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon
Pre report estimates: on feed at 99.1%, placements at 96.2%, marketings at 103.9%
Choice cuts up 0.23 and select down 0.11
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/20: up 0.74 @ 172.77

Dec hogs up 1.175 @ 88.200 & Dec pork cutout up 1.100 @ 97.975
Strong weekly exports sales were supportive at 40,800 mt
National Direct Afternoon report was not released due to packer submission issues
The uptrend in hogs remains intact but futures are becoming technically overbought
China’s government is set to release 20,000 tons of pork today, trying to control their domestic prices
Hog slaughter projected at 485K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/21: up 0.56 @ 93.76

Brandon Doherty