TFM Midday Update 10-21-2026

CORN

Corn is lower at midday trade as the US harvest passes the halfway mark, with little to no bullish news to offset harvest pressure. December corn is 1 cent lower at 4.61.
Cordonnier raised his Brazil production estimate by 2 million tons to 140 million, slightly above the USDA estimate of 139 million tons.
Argentina’s corn exports from March through September increased 41% year over year, while Brazil’s exports declined 24% over the same period. This highlights the growing use of Brazil’s corn supply for domestic feed and ethanol production.
Ethanol production increased to 322 million gallons last week, up from 313 million the previous week while up 2% YOY. Production was in line with expectations.

Soybeans are significantly lower at midday trade despite this morning’s announced flash sales. The entire soy complex is moving lower at midday. November soybeans are 3-3/4 cents lower at 12.44-3/4 and January soybeans are 4-1/2 cents lower at 12.59.
USDA confirmed sales of 134,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China and 165,000 tons to Spain for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year. The sale to Spain marks the first daily US soybean sales announcement to the country since December 17, 2024, and only the sixth such announcement in more than a decade.
SinoGrain continues to auction off reserve soybeans, with another 512,000 tons scheduled for auction early next week. Traders view the move as a potential effort to make more room for US soybean imports.
Cordonnier raised his Brazil soybean production estimate by 2 million tons to 182 million, compared with USDA at 186 million and CONAB at 181.6 million. Wet weather and flood risks in southeastern Brazil are creating challenges for planting, while conditions across the rest of the country remain generally favorable.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday trade as diplomatic efforts to resolve the Black Sea conflict appear to be gaining traction. December Chicago wheat is 14-3/4 cents lower at 6.28-1/2 and December Kansas City wheat is 17 cents lower at 6.74.
Russia had previously rejected Ukraine’s calls for peace talks, but following overnight meetings between US envoys and Putin, Russia indicated it would participate in trilateral discussions.
A surplus of competitively priced wheat remains tied up in Russia and Ukraine. An end to attacks on ports and vessels could have a notable bearish impact on global wheat prices if it allows exports to resume at full capacity.
Egypt reportedly purchased up to six cargoes of optional-origin wheat overnight, potentially signaling that current price levels are beginning to attract buyer interest.

Lauren VandenLangenberg