TFM Midday Update 10-22-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher at midday, supported by continued strength in crude oil prices overnight. December wheat is up at 4.22.
Trade negotiations with India continue to progress toward completion, with reports suggesting India may ease restrictions on GMO crops, potentially opening the door for U.S. corn imports likely destined for ethanol production.
Two key Chinese provinces, Henan and Shandong — which together account for roughly 30% of the nation’s total grain output — have experienced the heaviest rainfall in 60 years. The government is formulating a plan to help producers harvest crops before conditions deteriorate further.
Ethanol production rose to 327 million gallons in the week ended October 17, up from 316 million gallons the previous week and 3% higher than the YA. Output exceeded trade expectations, with an estimated 111 million bushels of corn used in the production process.

Soybean futures are trading higher at midday despite overnight comments from President Trump regarding the upcoming U.S.–China meeting. While he noted the meeting could be beneficial for both countries, he also acknowledged it may not take place. Soybeans and soybean meal are firmer, while soybean oil trades lower. November soybeans trader higher at 10.36 ½.
The status of U.S.–China trade negotiations remain uncertain. Treasury Secretary Bessent is traveling to Malaysia to meet with Chinese officials in an effort to lay the groundwork for a potential agreement both sides can present as a success. Without such progress, the planned meeting at the APEC Summit appears unlikely to take place.
CONAB estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 21.7% complete, ahead of last year’s pace of 17.6% but trailing the five-year average of 27.7%. Rainfall is in the forecast across key growing regions over the next two weeks, which could slow fieldwork but offer much-needed moisture for early-seeded areas.
Trade discussions with India continue to make progress, with reports indicating the country has agreed to increase purchases of U.S. soybean meal.

Wheat has firmed at midday, drawing support from strength in the broader grain complex, with little new market-moving information. December wheat moves higher trading at 5.03 ½.
U.S. and French wheat prices remain closely aligned, but Argentine quotes are easing in anticipation of a sizable harvest starting next month, potentially intensifying global export competition.
The scheduled Trump–Putin summit over the next two weeks appears uncertain after initial talks reportedly broke down, raising doubts about whether the meeting will take place.
U.S. winter wheat planting has progressed to an estimated 75–80% completion.

Lauren VandenLangenberg