TFM Midday Update 10-22-21

CORN

Dec up 5 @ 5.37
Corn has been in a sideways trading range – has support under the market with end user buying
Higher input costs next year could lower corn acres
NOAA came out with a US 3 month weather forecast calling for above normal temps for most of the US
Talk that China’s economy could be slowing – could reduce their commodity import demand

Nov down 4 @ 12.20
Soybeans yesterday were pressured by profit taking as well as lower energy and veg oil prices
Soybean market is struggling to rally because of possible higher crop and lower exports which could suggest a higher carryout at 500 mb vs the USDA’s 320 mb
Soybean exports are currently down 35% from a year ago
The Phase 2 deal between the US and China may not happen, which means they may become a buyer of only what they need (an won’t have to fulfill a deal)

Dec wheat up 15 @ 7.56, Dec KC up 23 @ 7.71, Dec MNPLS up 23 @ 10.08
Most wheat buyers in North Africa and the Middle East are short of wheat and need to buy
Europe’s wheat export pace should slow because they are ahead of projections already
Talk that Russian prices will continue to move higher – export tax could be $70 per metric ton by month end
Dec Minneapolis wheat breached the $10 mark today

Dec LC down 0.400 @ 129.150 & Apr FC down 1.550 @ 162.550
Cattle on Feed report is due for release this afternoon
On feed numbers are projected at 99.4% of last year, placements projected at 101.4%, and marketings projected at 97.5%
Cash has been steady with last week
Choice cuts up 0.63 and select down 0.08
Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/21: up 1.08 @ 155.11

Feb hogs up 0.125 @ 76.800 & Feb pork cutout @ 90.700
Hogs could see a recovery today, as liquidation usually runs 2-3 days
Lower exports Thursday indicated more pork available domestically
There is still a large supply of hogs to the market and that may be the case through the end of the year
National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.50
Hog slaughter projected at 475K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/22: down 1.06 @ 84.83

Brandon Doherty