TFM Midday Update 10-22-21


  • Dec up 5 @ 5.37
  • Corn has been in a sideways trading range – has support under the market with end user buying
  • Higher input costs next year could lower corn acres
  • NOAA came out with a US 3 month weather forecast calling for above normal temps for most of the US
  • Talk that China’s economy could be slowing – could reduce their commodity import demand


  • Nov down 4 @ 12.20
  • Soybeans yesterday were pressured by profit taking as well as lower energy and veg oil prices
  • Soybean market is struggling to rally because of possible higher crop and lower exports which could suggest a higher carryout at 500 mb vs the USDA’s 320 mb
  • Soybean exports are currently down 35% from a year ago
  • The Phase 2 deal between the US and China may not happen, which means they may become a buyer of only what they need (an won’t have to fulfill a deal)


  • Dec wheat up 15 @ 7.56, Dec KC up 23 @ 7.71, Dec MNPLS up 23 @ 10.08
  • Most wheat buyers in North Africa and the Middle East are short of wheat and need to buy
  • Europe’s wheat export pace should slow because they are ahead of projections already
  • Talk that Russian prices will continue to move higher – export tax could be $70 per metric ton by month end
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat breached the $10 mark today


  • Dec LC down 0.400 @ 129.150 & Apr FC down 1.550 @ 162.550
  • Cattle on Feed report is due for release this afternoon
  • On feed numbers are projected at 99.4% of last year, placements projected at 101.4%, and marketings projected at 97.5%
  • Cash has been steady with last week
  • Choice cuts up 0.63 and select down 0.08
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 118K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/21: up 1.08 @ 155.11


  • Feb hogs up 0.125 @ 76.800 & Feb pork cutout @ 90.700
  • Hogs could see a recovery today, as liquidation usually runs 2-3 days
  • Lower exports Thursday indicated more pork available domestically
  • There is still a large supply of hogs to the market and that may be the case through the end of the year
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.50
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/22: down 1.06 @ 84.83


Brandon Doherty

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