TFM Midday Update 10-24-2023

CORN

US corn harvest is now 59% complete, which is in line with last year, and ahead of the average of 54%.
Private exporters reported sales of 117,200 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The central Midwest is expected to receive healthy rains over the next 5-7 days. This should cause some harvest delays, but some of the states that are lagging farthest behind, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, are likely to miss the heavy rainfall.
So far, Argentina has planted about 18% of their corn crop. Their soybean planting typically begins in November, so the focus may begin to shift to that crop, causing the corn planting pace to slow until late November or early December.
Brazil’s corn planting progress has reached 63%, which is above the average of 58%.

US soybean harvest is now 76% complete, which is above the average, but below the last year’s pace of 78%.
Speculative traders are estimated to be short about 8,000 contracts in the soy complex, which would be their largest short position since March of 2020.
China may be looking to implement a fiscal stimulus plan to help their economic recovery. Only time will tell if it has any impact, however, it could mean more commodity demand down the road if their economic situation improves.
There are some scattered rains in Brazil’s forecast, however, no broad coverage over the next 10 days. The western and central areas of the country are in need of more moisture to avoid crop loss, but the southern regions have the opposite issue and continue to receive too much rain.
Brazil’s soybean planting progress has reached 29% complete, in line with the average, but behind the pace from the past couple of years.

US winter wheat is now 77% planted, which is in line with both last year and the average. Also, emergence has reached 53%, and crop conditions are expected to start being released next week. Conditions are expected to be better than last year due to the improved soil moisture in the southern Plains.
Ukraine’s ag ministry estimates that they have transported around 700,000 mt of ag goods through their humanitarian corridor to date. However, they believe that in theory it is possible to ship 2.0-2.5 mmt per month via that route. Grain also continues to export via the Danube river.
Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning. If they have a negative close, it would make three out of the last four sessions. This, along with a higher US Dollar Index this morning, have US wheat futures under pressure.

Brandon Doherty