TFM Midday Update 10-25-2023

CORN

With corn trading lower this morning, a close in negative territory this afternoon would be the fourth in a row. There has been little fresh news over the past few days to push the market higher, and crude oil slipping does not help the situation.
Brazil is said to have shipped about 6.5 mmt of corn in October, adding to pressure on US exports and thus the futures market.
The heavy rains this week in the central Midwest is causing harvest delays, and cold temperatures with snow in the northern Plains states are sure to do the same.
The 40 and 50 day moving averages on December corn are both around 4.85. With Dec corn breaking that support and currently trading below it, the 4.75 area may be the next support target.
Brazil’s corn planting progress has reached 63%, which is above the average of 58%.

December soybean meal made a new contract high overnight before fading back into negative territory this morning. Meal has been trending higher due to shortages in Argentina and concerns about weather in South America overall.
China reportedly signed contracts with US exporters for an unspecified amount of soybeans. Additionally, there was a flash sale today with private exporters reporting sales of 126,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
ADM’s CEO made a statement, thinking that by November, that Argentina will run out of soybeans to crush.
According to Anec, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 6.142 mmt in October 2023, compared with just 3.589 mmt in October 2022.

Russia continues to offer wheat for export more cheaply than any other origin. However, with few buyers right now, the lack of demand is weighing on the wheat market.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports have reached 8.56 mmt, but that is down significantly from 12.4 mmt at the same time last year.
Some of the drier areas in Argentina received a good shot of rain. Given the drought conditions, this could definitely help their wheat crop, and some analysts are beginning to increase production estimates.
Although there continues to be talks of Chinese interest in US soft wheat, so far, there has been no confirmation and no new announced sales.

Brandon Doherty