CORN
- Dec up 19 @ 5.63
- Private estimates for US corn carryout are around 1,275 mb vs the USDA’s 1,500 mb
- Ethanol data should show record production
- US has about 26 million corn acres left to harvest
- Brazilian conditions are mostly favorable
- January corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $10.36 per bushel
SOYBEANS
- Nov up 14 @ 12.52
- Private estimates for US soybean carryout range from 350-415 mb vs the USDA’s 320 mb
- Looking at possibly 70 mb fewer exports than what the USDA is saying
- US has about 17 million soybean acres left to harvest
- USDA forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop at 5.3 bb (a record large crop)
- January soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $18.23 per bushel
WHEAT
- Dec wheat up 10 @ 7.62, Dec KC up 8 @ 7.85, Dec MNPLS up 6 @ 10.27
- Private estimates for US wheat carryout have a wide range from 550-640 mb vs the USDA’s 580 mb
- North African and Middle Eastern wheat buyers might be having payment problems – this could in part be why we saw a reversal yesterday in wheat
- European wheat exports are 50% ahead of last year – this pace would leave them with next to nothing for ending stocks – their exports need to drop
- Russian wheat prices are higher than export prices
CATTLE
- Dec LC up 0.125 @ 131.575 & Apr FC down 1.600 @ 163.200
- Live cattle futures have moved above technical resistance
- Cash cattle traded steady to $1 higher
- Packers may be less aggressive as there are a lot of cattle ready for marketing
- Choice cuts up 1.72 and select down 0.65
- Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
- CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/26: down 0.39 @ 155.50
HOGS
- Feb hogs down 0.350 @ 74.800 & Feb pork cutout down 0.400 @ 88.750
- December and February have gaps in the charts above current levels, which may be filled at some point
- Hog futures are oversold and could be due for a correction
- Chinese pork import demand has substantially declined
- National Direct Afternoon report gained 0.15
- Hog slaughter projected at 478K
- CME Lean Hog Index for 10/27: down 0.32 @ 82.66
Author
Brandon Doherty