TFM Midday Update 10-27-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 19 @ 5.63
  • Private estimates for US corn carryout are around 1,275 mb vs the USDA’s 1,500 mb
  • Ethanol data should show record production
  • US has about 26 million corn acres left to harvest
  • Brazilian conditions are mostly favorable
  • January corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is around the equivalent of $10.36 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 14 @ 12.52
  • Private estimates for US soybean carryout range from 350-415 mb vs the USDA’s 320 mb
  • Looking at possibly 70 mb fewer exports than what the USDA is saying
  • US has about 17 million soybean acres left to harvest
  • USDA forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop at 5.3 bb (a record large crop)
  • January soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $18.23 per bushel

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 10 @ 7.62, Dec KC up 8 @ 7.85, Dec MNPLS up 6 @ 10.27
  • Private estimates for US wheat carryout have a wide range from 550-640 mb vs the USDA’s 580 mb
  • North African and Middle Eastern wheat buyers might be having payment problems – this could in part be why we saw a reversal yesterday in wheat
  • European wheat exports are 50% ahead of last year – this pace would leave them with next to nothing for ending stocks – their exports need to drop
  • Russian wheat prices are higher than export prices

CATTLE

  • Dec LC up 0.125 @ 131.575 Apr FC down 1.600 @ 163.200
  • Live cattle futures have moved above technical resistance
  • Cash cattle traded steady to $1 higher
  • Packers may be less aggressive as there are a lot of cattle ready for marketing
  • Choice cuts up 1.72 and select down 0.65
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 122K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/26: down 0.39 @ 155.50

HOGS

  • Feb hogs down 0.350 @ 74.800 & Feb pork cutout down 0.400 @ 88.750
  • December and February have gaps in the charts above current levels, which may be filled at some point
  • Hog futures are oversold and could be due for a correction
  • Chinese pork import demand has substantially declined
  • National Direct Afternoon report gained 0.15
  • Hog slaughter projected at 478K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/27: down 0.32 @ 82.66

Author

Brandon Doherty

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