TFM Midday Update 10-27-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 3 @ 6.82
  • USDA reported an increase of 10.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23
  • Corn prices have held up well, in the face of any harvest pressure
  • The Fed is expected to increase interest rates again on November 2nd
  • Export basis is historically low because of the low water levels on the Mississippi River
  • China’s internal corn price is around the equivalent of $10.08 per bushel


  • Nov soybeans up 1 @ 13.83
  • USDA reported an increase of 37.7 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23
  • The national soybean basis is the strongest for this time of year in 9 years
  • Talk that China may have purchased maybe 1 cargo out of the PNW and a few out of Brazil
  • The CRB commodity index and crude oil are coming into a wedge between support and resistance lines
  • Soybean harvest is expected to be more than 90% complete by the weekend


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  • Dec wheat up 6 @ 8.46, Dec KC up 2 @ 9.43, & Dec MNPLS up 7 @ 9.59
  • USDA reported an increase of 19.6 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23
  • Vessels may have about 10 days to go into Ukraine, get loaded, and leave, as the deadline for the extension of the export deal approaches
  • The G20 meeting on November 15th may act as a place for Putin to announce whether the corridor will be extended or closed
  • In the southern hemisphere, eastern Australia has received too much rain, but Argentina has not had enough
  • Argentina lowered their wheat crop 2 mmt, which reduces their export capabilities
  • Russia conducted practice launches of nuclear missiles on Wednesday – this was a planned exercise but still may serve to increase tensions in the region


  • Dec LC down 0.175 @ 153.400 & Nov FC down 0.100 @ 178.725
  • Beef export sales at 14,100 mt (with South Korea as the top buyer)
  • Live cattle futures may be consolidating after a strong run up
  • Cash cattle are expected to trade $2 higher or more
  • Choice cuts down 0.57 and select up 1.25
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/26: up 0.11 @ 174.96


  • Dec hogs down 2.725 @ 85.775 & Dec pork cutout down 0.850 @ 95.875
  • Pork net export sales at 20,300 mt (with Mexico as the top buyer)
  • Slaughter pace continues to outpace last year
  • Hog futures are sharply lower at midday and may be correcting from an overbought situation
  • Cutouts down 0.75 yesterday were unsupportive
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 2.21
  • Hog slaughter projected at 490K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/27: down 0.34 @ 94.47


Brandon Doherty

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