TFM Midday Update 10-28-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 5 @ 6.77
  • A possible railroad strike is looming, after a 2nd rail union voted no on the agreement
  • National corn basis is the strongest in 10 years (despite Mississippi River issues)
  • The deputy ag minister in Mexico stated that the country will proceed with a ban on GMO corn imports by 2024
  • Harvest conditions should be mostly favorable for the next 7 days
  • US corn export commitment is well below a year ago – USDA will likely lower the export number and raise the carryout on the November report


  • Nov soybeans down 9 @ 13.73
  • USDA reported sales of 126,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China and 198,000 mt for delivery to Spain (both during the 22/23 marketing year)
  • There is concern about soybean export demand, despite the fact that export commitments to date are above last year
  • China may see continued lockdowns of up to 200 million people, which could lower their import demand for raw materials and soybeans
  • Palm oil futures fell about 4% on Friday
  • First notice day for November futures is on Monday


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  • Dec wheat down 13 @ 8.25, Dec KC down 15 @ 9.17, & Dec MNPLS down 8 @ 9.43
  • The 6-10 day forecast shows broad rain coverage through the western US
  • Paris milling wheat futures have fallen below the 50 and 100 day moving averages
  • The European weather model puts rains in western Kansas, but the American model does not have rains in that area
  • Russia may be reluctant to extend the Ukraine export deal, claiming that only 3% of the exports have gone to the poorest countries and half going to western countries
  • In Argentina, only 11% of the wheat crop is rated good to excellent


  • Dec LC down 0.250 @ 153.175 & Nov FC up 0.550 @ 178.675
  • Southern cattle traded $2 higher and northern cattle were up to $5 higher
  • Strong cash may indicate tightening supply
  • Weekly export sales of 14,100 mt were neutral
  • Demand remains strong and boxed beef prices are trending higher
  • Choice cuts up 1.63 and select up 3.31
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/27: down 0.18 @ 174.78


  • Dec hogs up 0.525 @ 85.650 & Dec pork cutout unchanged @ 95.775
  • Hog futures may continue to correct from an overbought situation
  • Slaughter pace remains strong, but upside potential may be limited with cutouts struggling to trend higher
  • Disappointing export sales of 20,300 mt and cash down offered weakness to the market yesterday
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 6.99
  • Hog slaughter projected at 483K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/28: down 0.32 @ 94.15


Brandon Doherty

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