TFM Midday Update 10-29-20

CORN

Dec up 3/4 cent @ 4.02-1/4
Daily export sale of 1.432M mt – delivered to Mexico & 140K mt – delivery unknown
Short-term threat of long liquidation is significant
Argentina’s weather moving drier, optimal for planting after recent rains
Weekly export sales 2,243.7M mt – above trade est – up 23% from last week
Ethanol inventories in U.S. continued to drop – lowest level since 2016
Funds net sellers of 52K contracts – O/I: +16,400 contracts
Dec support @ 3.94 & resistance @ 4.04

Nov down 1/4 cent @ 10.57
Vulnerable to increased liquidation selling if support breached
Brazilian rains appreciated, planting pace will advance aggressively in drier areas
Weekly export sales of 1.620M mt – in line with trade est. – down 27% from last week
First notice day for Nov futures 10/30
Funds net sellers of 25K contracts – O/I: -30,900 contracts
Jan support @ 10.37 & resistance @ 10.59

Dec Chi down 1-1/4 @ 6.07-1/2, Dec KC up 1/2 @ 543-3/4, Dec MNPLS up 1-1/2 @ 5.53
Warm & dry weather put back into the forecast for both US Plains & Russia
Eastern Australia will need drier weather soon to protect winter wheat quality
Weekly export sales of 743.2K mt – above trade est – up 49% from last week
European wheat price hit 2 week low, due to economic impact of 2nd wave of Covid
Funds net sellers of 6K contracts SRW – O/I: +2,000 contracts SRW & + 1,885 contracts HRW
CHI resistance @ 5.87 & support @ 6.15, KC resistance @ 5.23 & support @ 5.49 & MNPLS resistance @ 5.45 & support @ 5.55

Dec LC up 1.60 @ 106.30 & Nov FC up 1.17 @ 135.02
Weather concerns ease as the forecast turns warmer for the Plains
Cash markets show some stability but beef trend down
Weekly export sales of 18.9K mt – down 13% from last week – China largest buyer
Boxed beef price down 0.91 yesterday @ 205.79 for choice
Slaughter keeping good pace, yesterday reported 118K
Oct feeder cattle options/futures expire today, Oct Live cattle futures expire 10/30
Cash prices light @ 105.50-106.25 for LC & @ 133.32 as of 10/27 for FC cash index

Dec down 1.17 @ 65.20
Weekly export sales of 29K mt – up 8% from last week – Mexico largest buyer
Prices slide on weak demand in report, China was the 4th in line as far as buyers go
Pork carcass fell to 84.52 – pressured by price drop of bellies
Hog slaughter estimated at 492K – up from 476K last year
Cash lean index @ 76.27 as of 10/27 – premium above futures but still dropping
O/I: -1,524 contracts

Amberlee Bratcher