TFM Midday Update 10-29-2021


  • Dec up 3 @ 5.66
  • We have seen a rally in corn this week due to higher nitrogen prices – there may be fewer corn acres next year due to these higher input costs
  • The next USDA WASDE report is on Nov 9th – they will likely raise ethanol demand – some analysts think they will raise yield 1-2 bu
  • Dec corn is above 5.60 which could cause some resistance
  • Corn exports are still down 16% from last year


  • Nov down 3 @ 12.30
  • 12.50 seems to be an area of resistance in the soybean market
  • Soybean market is looking for a little bit higher yield on the Nov 9th WASDE report and a carryout close to 400 mb
  • Wet US weather may slow harvest completion
  • Veg oils are supporting the soybean market
  • The Biden administration has proposed a $1 billion investment in biofuels over 10 years


  • Dec wheat down 3 @ 7.70, Dec KC down 4 @ 7.86, Dec MNPLS up 8 @ 10.46
  • Nov 9th WASDE report could show lower export numbers and higher carryout
  • A lower Canadian crop is helping futures to trade higher
  • Rains today will delay SRW wheat plantings in the eastern Midwest
  • The forecast for next week is dry for both SRW and HRW areas
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina’s wheat crop at 47% good to excellent


  • Dec LC down 1.400 @ 128.925 & Apr FC down 1.350 @ 160.650
  • Today is the last trading day for Oct live cattle
  • Overall outlook is for tightening cattle supply through year-end
  • The expectation is for higher cash in coming weeks
  • Choice cuts up 1.26 and select up 0.95
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 119K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/28: down 1.07 @ 154.96


  • Feb hogs up 0.225 @ 77.425 & Feb pork cutout down 0.450 @ 90.575
  • December and February have gaps in the charts above current levels, which may be filled at some point
  • Yesterday we saw technical buying in the hog market
  • There have been strong sales to Mexico
  • Packers have been able to attain the desired supplies without much difficulty
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 0.67
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/29: down 0.97 @ 80.70


Brandon Doherty

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