TFM Midday Update 10-3-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 2 @ 6.75
Corn has slipped from its early morning highs and is now slightly lower
Friday’s USDA report was bullish for corn as they reported there were 1.377 bb of corn on hand as of September 1, 148 mb less than expected a month prior
Upcoming Census Bureau reports may show more corn exports than expected and more corn being used for feed than previously guessed
Demand is currently slow with Brazilian corn priced cheaper and the slower pace of ethanol production, but crop conditions in Argentina are still very dry

Nov soybeans up 7 @ 13.72
Soybeans are higher today after Friday’s sharp sell-off caused by bearish USDA numbers
Friday’s USDA report showed 274 mb of soybeans on hand as of September 1, 34 mb higher than estimated with 30 mb attributed to a larger 2021 harvest than originally guessed
Harvest has picked up the past week and will likely show significant progress from last Monday’s 8% completion with weather forecasted to be dry and cooler over the next two weeks
Chinese markets are closed this week for their holiday, but Friday’s close showed soybean and meal prices at contract highs on the Dalian exchange, a bullish sign of demand

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Dec wheat down 7 @ 9.14, Dec KC down 3 @ 9.89, & Dec MNPLS up 2 @ 9.84
Wheat is relatively unchanged following Friday’s rally with bullish USDA numbers
KC wheat broke the 10-dollar mark on Friday after the USDA reported a lower-than-expected production estimate of 1.650 bb for 22/23
Based on Friday’s numbers it is possible that the new estimate of US ending wheat stocks on October 12 could drop from 610 mb to the low 500’s which would be the lowest US ending stocks estimate in 15 years
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate with Ukraine attempting to join NATO with support from other members

Oct LC up 1.275 @ 144.550 & Oct FC up 0.950 @ 175.125
Live and feeder cattle are around a dollar higher despite lower choice boxed beef
Last week’s cash averages were steady in the South and a dollar lower in the North
The cattle complex may be finding some technical support being in oversold territory
Choice cuts down 2.33 and select up 0.35
Cattle slaughter projected at 124K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/30: down 0.48 @ 175.46

Amanda Brill