TFM Midday Update 10-31-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn up 8 @ 6.88
  • Corn is following wheat higher, moving sharply after Russia moves to pull out of the grain deal following strikes on the Crimean port
  • Corn gapped higher on the open, but again battled and failed at the 7-dollar resistance level
  • Harvest is wrapping up, and yields in the upper Midwest have been coming in better than expected thanks to late season rains
  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders showed funds as buyers of corn increasing their net long position by 10,113 contracts to 264,374 contracts


  • Nov soybeans up 2 @ 13.90
  • Soybeans are slightly higher and have not enjoyed the same increase as corn and wheat as China braces for more lockdowns with Covid spreading in the city of Zhengzhou
  • China has proven that they still need soybeans during lockdown periods so demand shouldn’t take a big hit, but China will still look to South America for purchases first
  • Soybean oil continues to move higher almost approaching contract highs as palm oil rallies supporting crush margins to reach record highs
  • Friday’s CoT showed funds buying 8,549 contracts increasing their net long position to 75,411 contracts, the largest position in a month


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  • Dec wheat up 31 @ 8.59, Dec KC up 30 @ 9.56, & Dec MNPLS up 20 @ 9.64
  • Wheat has backed off a bit from early highs, which were as much as 55 cents higher, but is still sharply higher and bringing the other grains higher with it
  • In response to attacks on the Russian occupied Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Russia said over the weekend that it would halt participation in exporting agricultural products from Ukrainian ports
  • Following this news, it is now extremely unlikely that the UN brokered deal allowing Ukraine to export out of the Black Sea will be renewed
  • Non-commercials added to their short position last week by 14,001 contracts leaving them net short 36,052 contracts and scrambling to buy contracts back thanks to this weekend’s news


  • Dec LC down 0.700 @ 152.300 & Nov FC down 0.325 @ 177.550
  • Both live and feeder cattle are lower with feeders leading the way down on higher corn
  • Live cattle are experiencing spillover selling from feeders as corn and wheat surge higher
  • Cash traded 2 dollars higher last week at 150 in the South, and 5 dollars higher in the North at 240, while boxed beef traded higher
  • Last week’s Commitment of Traders showed funds increased their net long position by 27,526 contracts to 63,552 contracts
  • Choice cuts up 0.77 and select up 2.58
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/28: up 1.07 @ 175.85


  • Dec hogs down 0.125 @ 85.975 & Dec pork cutout unchanged @ 95.850
  • December hogs are lower while all deferred months are higher as cash fell, but cutouts rose by 2.88, and funds were significant buyers last week
  • If the trend is followed this week cash should be lower today followed by a jump tomorrow as packers get aggressive with purchases
  • Dec hogs are at a 5-dollar discount to cash giving them plenty of room to run higher
  • Friday’s CoT showed funds adding 19,529 contracts to their net long position to 53,972 contracts
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 1.15
  • Hog slaughter projected at 489K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 10/31: down 0.38 @ 93.77


Amanda Brill

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