TFM Midday Update 10-31-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher near midday, with prices closer to the upper end of the day’s range. December corn has traded lower for 6 of the past 7 trading days after failing at the 100-day moving average at 5.09.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report said that 71% of the corn harvest is complete, which is 5 points higher than the 5-year average. Illinois is 81% complete and Iowa is 77% complete.
In South America, weather in Argentina and central and northern Brazil has been too dry for seeding, but rain chances are now improving. Southern Brazil has been too wet however and heavy rains continue to be forecast.
There has been some support from the ethanol market with ethanol margins now at the best levels since 2021 and production climbing. The USDA Co-Products report said that corn processing values were at $8.56 per bushel in the eastern belt.

Soybeans have been rangebound for over a week and are trading higher today, near the upper end of their trading range. More favorable South American weather forecasts have been negative while demand has been supportive.
Yesterday, soybean meal gave back all of the gains from the previous day due to overbought technicals and profit taking, but export demand remains firm for meal which should continue to support soybeans.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean harvest at 85% complete which is above the 5-year average of 78%. Illinois is 89% complete and Iowa is 93% complete.
November soybeans expire on November 14, but there have already been 438 deliveries against the November contract, higher than expected.

All three wheat products are lower today, but KC wheat has taken the brunt of the selloff over the past few months. The lack of export demand has been a big bearish factor.
Russia continues to dominate global exports offering wheat at a cheap $230 per metric ton. US hard red winter wheat export sales are over 35% lower than a year ago.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 84% of the crop has been planted with 64% emerged, on track with its average pace. The USDA also said that 47% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 28% last year.
China is set to import record volumes of wheat this year due to damage to their crop, and they have been purchasing large amounts of Australian and French wheat.

Amanda Brill