TFM Midday Update 10-31-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trending lower at midday, extending their decline after failing to follow soybeans higher in the previous session and showing continued weakness into Friday’s session. December corn is down at 4.30.
China’s trade talks yesterday included some mention of milo but no corn, leading to long bean–short corn spreading and raising concern among traders over the absence of a corn deal.
Corn harvest is entering its final stages, and continued harvest pressure is weighing on prices. U.S. harvest weather remains favorable, with warm and dry conditions in the extended forecast expected to help producers wrap up the season.
Globally, Argentina’s corn planting is 35% complete, with favorable weather supporting steady progress. In France, harvest has reached 82% completion, ahead of the 74% average. Meanwhile, EU corn production was left unchanged from last month at 56.8 million tons.
Starting next week, corn limits will be adjusted to $0.30, down from the current $0.35.

Soybeans are trading lower during Friday’s session despite the positive news from the China–U.S. deal. The soybean and soybean meal markets are showing signs of being extremely overbought, while soybean oil is under pressure from recent weakness in palm and crude oils. November soybeans are trading down at $10.90 ¼ .
Yesterday’s session was highly volatile, driven by headlines surrounding the Trump–Xi meeting and speculation over when or if China will ramp up U.S. purchases. Overnight, confirmation came that China bought four additional cargoes of U.S. soybeans, totaling roughly 250,000 tons.
The World Bank has issued a warning about the developing La Niña pattern and its potential to bring dry weather to Argentina and southern Brazil. Such conditions could raise drought concerns and negatively impact crop production in the region.
Starting next week, the soybean daily trading limits will be reduced to $0.70 from $0.75.

Wheat futures traded mixed at midday, pressured by concerns that the crop was excluded from the recent China–U.S. discussions. Additional weakness stems from French and Russian wheat values trading slightly below U.S. offers, adding to export competitiveness worries. December wheat is up at 5.24 ¾.
Global fundamentals included reports of frost damage to some wheat crops in southern Argentina. The EU Commission raised its production estimate by 800,000 tons to 133.4 million, while French wheat sowings advanced to 68%, ahead of the 61% average.
U.S. winter wheat acreage rated under drought fell 3% this week as some dry conditions showed improvement.

Lauren VandenLangenberg