TFM Midday Update 10-6-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 9 @ 6.75
Corn is lower this morning after poor export sales numbers and another increase in the dollar
Net corn sales for 22/23 were 227,000 mt and were primarily to Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala, with exports of 645,500 mt primarily to China, Mexico, and Guatemala
Despite slowing exports, corn has managed to stay rangebound near its highest levels in months
According to AgriCensus.com Brazil exported 268 mb of corn in September, the most on record for the month

Nov soybeans down 14 @ 13.56
The soy complex is lower today after poor export sales despite strength in crude oil
The low water levels in the Mississippi River are creating problems for barges transporting grain, and little rain is expected over the next week making matters worse
Cash soymeal prices in Illinois have fallen over 100 dollars a short ton in the past two weeks
Despite the drop in soymeal prices, crush value remains solid at over 3-dollars a bushel over the price of soybeans
Net sales of soybeans for 22/23 were 777,100 mt and were primarily to Mexico, China, and the Netherlands while exports were 617,500 mt

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Dec wheat down 20 @ 8.82, Dec KC down 22 @ 9.69, & Dec MNPLS down 14 @ 9.67
Wheat is lower today as weather forecasts show rains expected around the Texas Panhandle as well as the Southern Plains giving HRW wheat needed relief
Ukraine has re-taken many territories that Russia recently annexed and the world is waiting to see what Russia’s reaction will be
With the US production estimate for wheat now at 1.65 bb and the questions over how much wheat Russia and Ukraine will manage to export, global supplies will likely remain tight
There was an increase of 229,400 mt of wheat export sales for 22/23, and last weeks export shipments of 23.1 mb were above the 15.6 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates

Oct LC up 0.500 @ 145.175 & Oct FC down 0.750 @ 175.800
Front month live cattle are higher while deferred months and feeder cattle are lower
The US Dollar is higher again today which is pressuring livestock
Cash has traded a dollar higher in both the North and the South at 230 and 144 respectfully
Net sales of beef were 16,400 mt for 2022 and were primarily to South Korea, Japan, and Mexico
Choice cuts down 0.98 and select down 2.69
Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/5: down 0.09 @ 175.58

Oct hogs up 1.400 @ 92.175 & Oct pork cutout up 0.525 @ 100.000
Hogs are higher again this morning with a slight gain in cash but jump in the cutout of a dollar
October futures are doing a great job of keeping up with the cash index as expiration nears and recent gains can be attributed to the jump in cash as the packer became more aggressive
Net sales of pork were 34,300 mt and primarily to Mexico, China, and Canada
National Direct Afternoon report rose 0.22
Hog slaughter projected at 485K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/6: down 0.51 @ 92.93

Amanda Brill