TFM Midday Update 10-7-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 6 @ 6.81
Corn is higher this morning after starting lower in the pre-market as the threat of sub-freezing temperatures may impact corn yields that have not reached the black layer as far South as Missouri
Corn exports have been slow thanks to Brazil’s cheaper corn, and now with the low water levels in the Mississippi River, barge traffic is limited in the US making it difficult to move grain
Other than the cold-front, harvest conditions are favorable with dry and cool weather expected
Ethanol production has fallen lately hurt by narrowing margins in areas where corn is sparse

Nov soybeans up 2 @ 13.60
Soybeans are slightly higher to unchanged this morning despite a nearly 3-dollar jump in crude oil prices, and only front month bean oil is higher
The US Dollar is slightly higher again today keeping US beans expensive for exports while main buyer China looks to Brazil and Argentina to purchase
While global export demand is shaky, domestic demand is still good thanks to favorable crush margins that are keeping processors buying cash beans
Early planting conditions in Brazil are favorable but may turn drier like Argentina

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Dec wheat up 1 @ 8.80, Dec KC up 5 @ 9.70, & Dec MNPLS up 3 @ 9.65
Wheat is mixed today with Chicago mostly unchanged but KC and Minneapolis higher
On October 12 the USDA will likely estimate 22/23 ending stocks for wheat at their lowest levels in 15 years, and there are obvious production issues with Ukraine and Russia
Canada has produced a good wheat crop as well as Australia but without enough supply from the US, Ukraine, and Russia, global supplies are shaping up to be very tight
Ukraine has re-taken much of their territory quickly, but now the concern is that Russia will use nuclear weapons

Oct LC up 0.225 @ 145.500 & Oct FC down 0.150 @ 175.575
Live cattle are modestly higher while feeders are lower as grain prices rise
Cash traded a dollar higher for both live and dressed as feedlots held out for higher prices successfully knowing the packers needed the inventory
Poor export sales and a drop in boxed beef are putting some pressure on prices today
Choice cuts up 0.30 and select down 2.23
Cattle slaughter projected at 117K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/6: up 0.11 @ 175.69

Oct hogs down 0.300 @ 92.075 & Oct pork cutout up 0.450 @ 101.550
Hog futures have slipped and are now lower in the front months while higher in the deferred
Cash was lower yesterday afternoon, which is not supportive, but the cutout saw a much-needed gain of 2 dollars
Yesterday’s export sales were strong, and China being listed as a top buyer consistently is a great sign and pork exports to China are up 21% from a year ago
National Direct Afternoon report fell 3.59
Hog slaughter projected at 479K
CME Lean Hog Index for 10/7: down 0.16 @ 92.77

Amanda Brill