TFM Midday Update 10-7-2026

CORN

Corn is lower at midday as the U.S. dollar climbs back toward last week’s contract highs. December corn is 4-1/2 cents lower at 5.03-1/2.
Cordonnier left his U.S. yield estimate unchanged at 177 bpa but expects harvested acres could decline by 300,000 to 500,000 acres.
Brazil’s September corn exports totaled 5.21 million tons, down from 7.56 million tons a year ago, largely due to increased domestic corn use for ethanol production.
U.S. harvest should progress quickly over the next week, although the 6–10 day outlook shows an increased chance of rain.
Ethanol production jumped to 310 million gallons last week, up from 296 million the previous week while down 1.7% year over year.

Soybeans are lower at midday, along with soybean oil, while soybean meal is posting modest gains. November soybeans are 6-1/2 cents lower at 12.96-1/2.
Traders are hopeful for renewed Chinese demand once the country’s holiday ends tomorrow. President Trump’s comments that China could double its soybean purchases provided support to the soybean market from yesterday into today.
As U.S. harvest ramps up this week under dry and sunny conditions, more confirmation should emerge on the extent of soybean damage caused by the recent persistent wet weather.
IMEA estimates Mato Grosso production at 48.9 million tons, down 5% year over year on El Nino yield risk and slow planting conditions.
Dr. Cordonnier left his U.S. yield estimate unchanged at 51.5 bpa but voiced concerns about soybean quality due to the recent wet conditions.

Wheat is sharply lower at midday, pressured by strength in the U.S. dollar. December Chicago wheat is 14-1/2 cents lower at 6.90 and December Kansas City wheat is 13-3/4 cents lower at 7.42-1/2.
SovEcon lowered its Russian soybean production estimate this morning to 87.5 million tons, down from 88.2 million tons previously.
Ukraine’s crop is 50% planted, with acreage expected to decline by as much as 15% due to the ongoing war.
The Canadian Prairies are expected to remain wet over the next week, which could significantly slow harvest progress.

Lauren VandenLangenberg