TFM Midday Update 10-9-2026

CORN

Corn futures have edged higher ahead of today’s WASDE report. December corn is 1-3/4 cents higher at $5.02, while March corn is 1-1/4 cents higher at $5.16-1/2.
A Reuters poll shows analysts expect U.S. corn production to decline to 15.721 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks projected at 1.670 billion bushels in today’s USDA report. The average pre-report yield estimate is 177.8 bpa, down from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bpa.
The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at its highest level in more than a year. Continued strength in the dollar could pressure U.S. export prospects by making U.S. commodities more expensive for foreign buyers.

Soybean futures have moved higher at midday. November soybeans are 6-1/4 cents higher at $12.93-3/4, while January soybeans are 6 cents higher at $13.10-1/4.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report call for 2026/27 U.S. soybean ending stocks to remain virtually unchanged at 309 mb, compared with USDA’s September estimate of 310 mb. Harvested area is expected to remain unchanged at 85.9 million acres, while yield is projected to increase 0.1 bpa to 52.9 bpa, resulting in a slight increase in production.
USDA is scheduled to update its corn and soybean harvest progress estimates Monday, with traders expecting a sharp increase in activity after clear weather allowed Midwest farmers to resume fieldwork following late-September rain delays.

The wheat complex is mixed but mostly lower. Looking at December contracts, Chicago wheat is 1/2 cent higher at $6.83-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 2 cents lower at $7.34, and Minneapolis spring wheat is 3/4 cent lower at $7.05-1/4.
Ahead of today’s WASDE report, traders expect 2026/27 U.S. wheat ending stocks to increase to around 722 mb, up from 717 mb in September. Globally, 2025/26 ending stocks are expected to decline 0.2 MMT to 280.4 MMT, while 2026/27 stocks are projected to increase 0.5 MMT to 276.8 MMT.
The wheat market continues to find support from limited supplies out of Russia and Ukraine. Traders are closely monitoring developments in the Black Sea region as both countries work to expand alternative export routes.

Matthew Lucas