TFM Midday Update 11-01-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn up 2 @ 6.94
Corn is trading quietly higher after slipping lower this morning as Putin claims that the Black Sea grain deal is back on
While the UN says that Ukrainian exports are still moving and being inspected, Ukraine reports that 218 vessels are blocked and 101 waiting for inspection to leave Ukraine
US corn inspections are down 23% from last year as South American corn is still cheaper
Corn remains in its sideways trading range with 7 dollars as very strong resistance

Nov soybeans up 22 @ 14.29
Soybeans have broken out of their range higher as strong domestic demand as a result of record high crush margins supports prices
The USDA reported that 94.6 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, and impressive number given the issues on the Mississippi
440 contracts were delivered yesterday, but demand has not been an issue as processors are hungry for cash beans in the wake of record crush margins
Based on January futures, the value of crushed soybeans exceeds the cost of beans by 3.85 a bushel

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Dec wheat up 2 @ 8.55, Dec KC down 9 @ 9.70, & Dec MNPLS down 10 @ 9.72
Wheat is lower following confusing news out of the Black Sea region, which has traders wondering whether Ukrainian exports will be allowed to continue
Yesterday, Russia said they were suspending the deal, but today it appears as though it is back on, but that Russia may stop Ukrainian ships for inspection
In the US, 87% of winter wheat is planted, but only 62% is emerged which is down from the 5-year average of 66% for this time of year
Only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, which is tied with 2002 for the worst rating at this time of year

Dec LC down 0.375 @ 152.100 & Nov FC down 0.475 @ 177.150
Front month live cattle are lower with deferred contracts higher, while feeders are lower with slightly higher corn
Higher cash trade is still expected this week but not necessarily with the same strength as last week, leaving traders unsure as grain prices hold steadily higher
Slaughter pace is brisk leaving packers needing to replenish supplies
Choice cuts up 0.39 and select down 0.03
Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/31: up 1.63 @ 177.48

Dec hogs up 0.350 @ 85.250 & Dec pork cutout unchanged @ 96.700
Hogs are trading higher despite lower cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.40
Dec hogs remain at a 4-dollar discount to cash and have room to run higher especially if cash jumps today as expected
The cutout has been unable to find support with such brisk slaughter pace
National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.20
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/1: up 0.02 @ 93.79

Amanda Brill