TFM Midday Update 11-01-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn up 2 @ 6.94
  • Corn is trading quietly higher after slipping lower this morning as Putin claims that the Black Sea grain deal is back on
  • While the UN says that Ukrainian exports are still moving and being inspected, Ukraine reports that 218 vessels are blocked and 101 waiting for inspection to leave Ukraine
  • US corn inspections are down 23% from last year as South American corn is still cheaper
  • Corn remains in its sideways trading range with 7 dollars as very strong resistance


  • Nov soybeans up 22 @ 14.29
  • Soybeans have broken out of their range higher as strong domestic demand as a result of record high crush margins supports prices
  • The USDA reported that 94.6 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, and impressive number given the issues on the Mississippi
  • 440 contracts were delivered yesterday, but demand has not been an issue as processors are hungry for cash beans in the wake of record crush margins
  • Based on January futures, the value of crushed soybeans exceeds the cost of beans by 3.85 a bushel


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  • Dec wheat up 2 @ 8.55, Dec KC down 9 @ 9.70, & Dec MNPLS down 10 @ 9.72
  • Wheat is lower following confusing news out of the Black Sea region, which has traders wondering whether Ukrainian exports will be allowed to continue
  • Yesterday, Russia said they were suspending the deal, but today it appears as though it is back on, but that Russia may stop Ukrainian ships for inspection
  • In the US, 87% of winter wheat is planted, but only 62% is emerged which is down from the 5-year average of 66% for this time of year
  • Only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, which is tied with 2002 for the worst rating at this time of year


  • Dec LC down 0.375 @ 152.100 & Nov FC down 0.475 @ 177.150
  • Front month live cattle are lower with deferred contracts higher, while feeders are lower with slightly higher corn
  • Higher cash trade is still expected this week but not necessarily with the same strength as last week, leaving traders unsure as grain prices hold steadily higher
  • Slaughter pace is brisk leaving packers needing to replenish supplies
  • Choice cuts up 0.39 and select down 0.03
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/31: up 1.63 @ 177.48


  • Dec hogs up 0.350 @ 85.250 & Dec pork cutout unchanged @ 96.700
  • Hogs are trading higher despite lower cash and a drop in the cutout of 1.40
  • Dec hogs remain at a 4-dollar discount to cash and have room to run higher especially if cash jumps today as expected
  • The cutout has been unable to find support with such brisk slaughter pace
  • National Direct Afternoon report declined 2.20
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/1: up 0.02 @ 93.79


Amanda Brill

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