TFM Midday Update 11-02-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 13 @ 6.85
  • Corn is down sharply today following Russia’s announcement that they have agreed to extend the Ukrainian grain deal
  • Corn remains rangebound since September 9 between about 6.65 and 7 dollars, and the 7-dollar resistance level has proven to be very firm
  • Harvest has been going well with favorable weather and conditions turning drier next week
  • Feed demand for corn has been the most consistent source of support lately and has helped national basis to remain strong


  • Nov soybeans down 2 @ 14.34
  • Soybeans are lower this morning, more likely due to profit taking than news regarding the Black Sea grain deal
  • Bean oil is higher again today while meal is lower, and because of the record high crush margins, bean basis is at its highest level in 9 years nationally despite harvest time
  • While domestic demand has been strong, export demand has become more promising as well with China back as an active buyer despite their Covid lockdowns
  • January soybean meal in China closed at a new contract high showing their need for soybeans


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  • Dec wheat down 58 @ 8.45, Dec KC down 47 @ 9.44, & Dec MNPLS down 39 @ 9.51
  • Wheat is sharply lower and is taking the Russian grain deal news worse than corn
  • Ships have been allowed to leave ports, but may be subject to Russian inspections, and Russia may have conditions attached to the renewal of this grain deal
  • In the US, rains expected for the southwestern Plains are expected to stay East of the HRW wheat region leaving most crops extremely dry
  • US and global wheat supplies are extremely tight, and Argentina’s crop has been plagued with drought, but Australia should be able to contribute to the world supply


  • Dec LC down 0.400 @ 151.550 Nov FC up 2.025 @ 178.950
  • Live cattle are slightly lower while feeders are about 2 dollars higher with lower grains
  • Asking prices are between 152 and 153 in the South with no bids around yet, and boxed beef is called to be slightly lower again today
  • Cash is expected to be 1-2 dollars higher this week which would support futures
  • Choice cuts down 1.02 and select down 1.73
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/1: down 0.51 @ 176.97


  • Dec hogs down 1.300 @ 83.900 & Dec pork cutout unchanged @ 97.075
  • Hog futures are lower today with a gain in cash as expected but a drop in the cutout of 2.73
  • Cash is expected to be higher again today, but the cutout will need to stabilize to support futures
  • Slaughter pace has been strong indicating good pork demand
  • National Direct Afternoon report up 1.41
  • Hog slaughter projected at 491K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/2: down 0.04 @ 93.75


Amanda Brill

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