TFM Midday Update 11-02-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Dec corn down 13 @ 6.85
Corn is down sharply today following Russia’s announcement that they have agreed to extend the Ukrainian grain deal
Corn remains rangebound since September 9 between about 6.65 and 7 dollars, and the 7-dollar resistance level has proven to be very firm
Harvest has been going well with favorable weather and conditions turning drier next week
Feed demand for corn has been the most consistent source of support lately and has helped national basis to remain strong

Nov soybeans down 2 @ 14.34
Soybeans are lower this morning, more likely due to profit taking than news regarding the Black Sea grain deal
Bean oil is higher again today while meal is lower, and because of the record high crush margins, bean basis is at its highest level in 9 years nationally despite harvest time
While domestic demand has been strong, export demand has become more promising as well with China back as an active buyer despite their Covid lockdowns
January soybean meal in China closed at a new contract high showing their need for soybeans

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Dec wheat down 58 @ 8.45, Dec KC down 47 @ 9.44, & Dec MNPLS down 39 @ 9.51
Wheat is sharply lower and is taking the Russian grain deal news worse than corn
Ships have been allowed to leave ports, but may be subject to Russian inspections, and Russia may have conditions attached to the renewal of this grain deal
In the US, rains expected for the southwestern Plains are expected to stay East of the HRW wheat region leaving most crops extremely dry
US and global wheat supplies are extremely tight, and Argentina’s crop has been plagued with drought, but Australia should be able to contribute to the world supply

Dec LC down 0.400 @ 151.550 & Nov FC up 2.025 @ 178.950
Live cattle are slightly lower while feeders are about 2 dollars higher with lower grains
Asking prices are between 152 and 153 in the South with no bids around yet, and boxed beef is called to be slightly lower again today
Cash is expected to be 1-2 dollars higher this week which would support futures
Choice cuts down 1.02 and select down 1.73
Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/1: down 0.51 @ 176.97

Dec hogs down 1.300 @ 83.900 & Dec pork cutout unchanged @ 97.075
Hog futures are lower today with a gain in cash as expected but a drop in the cutout of 2.73
Cash is expected to be higher again today, but the cutout will need to stabilize to support futures
Slaughter pace has been strong indicating good pork demand
National Direct Afternoon report up 1.41
Hog slaughter projected at 491K
CME Lean Hog Index for 11/2: down 0.04 @ 93.75

Amanda Brill