TFM Midday Update 11-02-2023


  • Corn is trading slightly higher today but is struggling to gain much momentum as harvest accelerates with a clear 7-day forecast.
  • Today’s export sales report showed increases of 29.5 mb for 23/24, which was within trade expectations. Shipments of 19.9 mb were well below the 41.1 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimated 2.025 bb.
  • StoneX has raised their estimates of the US corn yield amid reports of better-than-expected yields, with their estimate now sitting at 175.7 bpa from 175.5 bpa previously.
  • Yesterday, the US Department of Energy said that ethanol stocks fell by 1.8% to 21.012m bbl, and analyst expectations were 21.402. Production was slightly higher than the survey averages.


  • Soybeans are trading higher near midday, but have slipped a bit from their highs earlier in the day which saw prices at the top of the trading range. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
  • Soybean export sales were good for 23/24 at 37.1 mb, which was within trade expectations. Export shipments were very large last week at 73.2 mb, which was well above the 32.6 mb needed each week.
  • Chinese imports have been very strong with imports over the past three months estimated at 26 mmt and total imports at 105 mmt, which would be a record according to trade groups in China.
  • StoneX has lowered their estimate for the national soybean yield to 50.3 bpa from 50.4 bpa a month ago with production falling by 13 mb. These estimates are still higher than the USDA’s most recent guess.


  • All three wheat products are trading higher today, but KC and Minneapolis wheat are still near their contract lows as poor export sales suppress prices.
  • US export sales for the week ending October 26 were 10.1 mb for 23/24, which was below the low end of the average trade range. Shipments were very poor at 3.7 mb, which is well below the average 14.2 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s estimate of 700 mb.
  • Despite Australia’s smaller than anticipated wheat crop due to drought, China has been an active buyer as it leaves US wheat as a last resort.
  • Russia continues to dominate global exports offering wheat as cheap as $230 per metric ton. US hard red winter wheat export sales are over 35% lower than a year ago.


Amanda Brill

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