TFM Midday Update 11-03-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 5 @ 6.83
  • Corn is lower today but still within its tight trading range after the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 75 basis points yesterday
  • While Russia said yesterday that the grain deal could continue, they keep shelling Ukrainian cities and have now once again caused the nuclear power plant to be disconnected from the power grid
  • Weekly export sales for corn were 14.7 mb for 22-23 and last week’s export shipments of 17.7 mb were below the 45.6 mb needed
  • StoneX revised their yield estimates yesterday at 174.5 bpa for corn


  • Nov soybeans down 10 @ 14.31
  • The soy complex is lower today with profit taking likely, but soybeans have managed to stay broken out above their previous trading range
  • Net sales of soybeans were strong again at 830,200 mt for 22/23 and were primarily to China, while exports were a big 2,651,800 mt
  • The USDA is estimating he lowest supplies of US soybeans in 7 years, while crush demand is historically strong keeping national basis firm
  • The value of crushed soybeans based on the January contracts is 3.80 above the cost of beans


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  • Dec wheat down 1 @ 8.45, Dec KC up 4 @ 9.44, & Dec MNPLS up 2 @ 9.51
  • Wheat is slightly higher after the news reported that the latest round of Russian strikes on Ukraine caused the nuclear power plant to be completely disconnected from the power grid
  • The Zaporizhzhia power plant is now running on backup generators which have enough diesel to keep them running for 15 days, threatening a catastrophe of radiation exposure
  • Global wheat supplies outside China are at their tightest levels in 15 years
  • Wheat export sales were poor at 12.8 mb for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 4.3 mb were well below the 14.1 mb needed to achieve the USDA’s estimates


  • Dec LC up 0.200 @ 151.625 Nov FC down 0.175 @ 178.750
  • Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are bouncing around either side of unchanged
  • Beef export sales were poor at 9,200 mt for 2022 and were primarily to Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, while exports were 18,000 mt
  • Asking prices in the South are between 151 and 152 with very light business done in Texas at 149, while asking prices in the North are between 244 and 245
  • Choice cuts up 0.84 and select up 0.43
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 128K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/2: up 0.32 @ 177.29


  • Dec hogs up 0.550 @ 83.850 & Dec pork cutout up 0.450 @ 94.300
  • Hogs are higher this morning despite lower cash and a drop in the cutout of 0.98 after good export sales numbers were released
  • Net sales of pork for 2022 were 47,900 mt and primarily to Mexico, China, and Japan, and exports were 30,700 mt
  • Dec hogs are at a 6-dollar discount to cash and have room to move higher if cash stays firm
  • National Direct Afternoon report down 0.27
  • Hog slaughter projected at 490K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 11/3: down 0.46 @ 93.29


Amanda Brill

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