TFM Midday Update 11-06-2023

CORN

Private exporters reported sales of 289,575 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
Crude oil is higher this morning, possibly due to talk that both Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed supply cuts. This may in turn offer support to the grain markets.
In Brazil, poor emergence of the safrinha corn crop may result in the need for replanting. This may affect total production because the replant will take place during a less optimal timeframe.
December corn may have formed a double bottom chart pattern on Friday. Additionally, stochastics are showing a buy crossover signal in the oversold region. Both of these technical indicators point to a potential upside in corn futures.
Cold weather and snowstorms in northeastern China are causing corn harvest delays. This could also affect drying, storage, and transport logistics of grain.

Private exporters reported sales of 126,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
Northern and central Brazil look to remain mostly dry over the next 10 days, while southern Brazil is still getting too much rain. Due to the weather issues, it is being said that they may need to replant as much as 20%-30% of their soybean crop. According to Ag Rural, their planting is currently 51% complete (down from the average 57%).
Currently, US soybeans (vs Brazil) are competitive to China December forward, until the March timeframe when Brazil’s harvest begins.
Although conditions have improved in Argentina with recent rains, their supply of old crop soybeans is still limited, which should keep US meal demand strong.

Brazil’s supply of feed wheat is large at 2.5 mmt and is competitive on exports, said to be around $212 per mt FOB for December shipment.
With wheat trading both sides of neutral this morning, the market seems to have brushed off news of a new Russian attack on Odessa that caused damage to the port and wounded eight people.
The current USDA estimate of the Russian wheat crop stands at 85 mmt. However, Russia’s estimate last week comes in at 93 mmt. It is possible that the USDA will make a revision on this week’s WASDE report.
The US Dollar Index gapped lower last week and is now well below the recent high (which was over 107). If the downtrend continues it should offer support to the wheat market, as exports become more competitive.

Brandon Doherty