TFM Midday Update 11-07-2023

CORN

Southern Brazil has recently seen relief from heavy rains, but the next wave is forecast to hit at the end of the week and into the weekend, potentially causing more flooding and crop damage. Dry northern areas did get some beneficial precipitation this past weekend, but it looks like they will return to a dry and warm pattern.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA said that 81% of the corn crop is harvested, above the average of 77% but below 85% at this time last year.
Crude oil is currently trading lower, and below $80 per barrel. There seems to be less concern about the conflict in the Middle East affecting the flow of oil, and this is the first time it has been below the $80 level since late August. This may be in part what is weighing on corn this morning.
About two thirds of Brazil’s first corn crop is planted, but with the weather issues they are facing, there is concern that a significant amount will need to be replanted.

Private exporters reported sales of 110,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
This morning, December soybean meal made a new contract high, offering support to soybean futures.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA said 91% of the soybean crop is harvested, above the average of 86% but below 93% at this time last year.
Customs data showed Chinese soybean imports in October at 5.2 mmt. That represents a 28% decrease from September but is up 25% from October last year. Year to date, imports have reached 82.5 mmt, which is up 14.5% year on year.

Yesterday’s wheat inspections at 2.6 mb were an all-time low for this time of year for records going back to 1983.
Yesterday afternoon the USDA said 90% of the winter wheat crop is planted, above the average of 89% but down slightly from last year at 91%.
With 75% of the winter wheat crop emerged, the USDA rated the crop at 50% good to excellent, up 3% from last week, and well above the 30% rating at this time last year.
Russia continues to offer cheap wheat for export and that is limiting upside potential for the US market. With Russia estimating their crop higher than the USDA number, it is possible that there could be a revision on Thursday’s report that would further dampen upward price movement.

Brandon Doherty